Why The Obsession With "One Shot Stop" Statistics?

[arkythehun]

Another good reason for "one shot stop" is so that you don't have to go back and hit the guy five times to get him from being a threat and then find yourself brought up on charges by some prosecutor in OK when you were the one originally being shot at.

:jacked:

Not only should they clear Ersland, they should give him his money and guns back! Dammit!

(I might be premature on this but it seems to be turning into something of a legal fiasco.)

[Weetabix]

A 90% rating would be preferable to a 50% for instance. The higher the one stop percentage the higher the percentage of stops from multiple rounds (and no, 2 90% rounds do not equal 180%, I'm too lazy to look up the formula right now).

IIRC, 1 - (1 - 0.9)^2 = 0.99

thus,

1 - (1 - 0.5)^2 = 0.75.

and, what CC said.

[Aaron]

well as ive said before... if i only get one shot, i would want a phased plasma rifle in the 40w range... but since i will probably get more than one, a 9mm with a good JHP will be fine...

That doesn't match my experience at all. The last time I found myself under fire, and thank God the only time since leaving the military, I did indeed fire two shots, but only one of them hit. Other times earlier in life I've taken shots when there simply was no way to take even a quick follow up shot. Given the chance, hell yes I'll shoot until the threat stops, and carrying a .45 which I keep fed with JHPs I shouldn't have to very often. However, there's no way to be sure of getting off a second, or third or fourth, shot so making sure each one counts seems a good idea to me.

Obviously, making your lead go where it needs to is the key factor, but 'stopping ability' (a stupid phrase itself, but I refuse to go with stopping power) is nearly as important.

Otherwise we'd all carry .22 pistols with 30 round magazines.

[SeekHer]

Back in the days, there was the Taylor Knock Down Chart, which compared the power of rifle calibers and bullet selection from the lowly .22 centerfire to the .577 NE...

I seen to remember a similar chart for handgun calibers but I can't find it...

It goes back to the point made that once down and only wounded they can and have returned fire so you want to have the person either "stopped" permanently or disabled to the point of being unconscious and the only thing that will do that is a massive jolt to the human torso, preferably COM, producing massive bleeding resulting in brain shutdown and henceforth no more return fire…Whether they survive long enough to get to the surgery, I don’t give a shit about, just so long as they don’t shoot back—or attack me with a knife or an axe or baseball bat…

I hit them COM with a 240 gr .41 Mag round they will know about it, they will go down quickly and blood loss will be instantaneous resulting in a “stopped” miscreant! I don’t have the luxury of being able to get a double tap—recoil too sharp so one has to make do…Now you take a 9mm and you have to triple tap them, then you’ve only got around six (6) targets to shoot at (based on an eighteen shot handgun)—Gee, the same as me!

[randy]

IIRC, 1 - (1 - 0.9)^2 = 0.99

thus,

1 - (1 - 0.5)^2 = 0.75

Yeah, that looks about right. Thanks.

[Frosch]

I don't want to belabor this, but there are some here who don't know how to go about
calculating the probability for combined events like this. It's a useful thing to know, and
pretty simple.

Look at it this way (I'm not a math professor, but I play one on TV): we're going
to pretend that these are independent events, like coin tosses. They aren't, of course.
Increasing numbers of hits have synergistic affects beyond the combined probability.
But we'll go with it.

Each shot can succeed or fail, and we know this probability. The probability for success
is .9. You might be tempted to multiply these together to get the probability of success.
But that would be wrong. Simple examination will show this -- the probability is .81.
You already know he's more likely to be stopped with two shots, so it must be wrong.
What you have calculated is the probability that both shots were stoppers. That's
not what we're after. We want to know whether he's stopped, which means that at least
one of them stopped him. If we know the probability that he won't be stopped, we also
know the probability that he will. So let's calculate the probability of all shots failing.

What is the probability Mr. Scumbag will not be stopped with multiple shots? In
that case, all shots will fail, so it's the combined probability of failure, which is
.1 x .1. The probability of failure for two shots is .01. You'll notice that that's the
same answer we already have -- probability of success is then .99

I often think that elementary statistics should be a required subject in high school,
even if it's a sort of "non-quantitative" survey course to get the principles. It would
insulate citizens (voters) from a lot of the bogus statistical arguments out there.

Ok, I've done my part; y'all take it from here.

[Rich Jordan]

why do we still hear so much about one shot stopping capability? Especially given that even a single .45 round has been shown to be insufficient, given the right circumstances.

Fire Away!

Have you seen the price of ammo lately? Second shots cost money! And you use up a valuable primer, bullet, and powder, and likely won't be able to replace them without spending even more, or waiting for a lucky hit at wally world...

[Netpackrat]

It's funny watching you all try to quantify the unquantifiable, time after time after time.

[Combat Controller]

why do we still hear so much about one shot stopping capability? Especially given that even a single .45 round has been shown to be insufficient, given the right circumstances.

Fire Away!

Have you seen the price of ammo lately? Second shots cost money! And you use up a valuable primer, bullet, and powder, and likely won't be able to replace them without spending even more, or waiting for a lucky hit at wally world...

And good luck being allowed to pick up your brass!

[Frosch]

why do we still hear so much about one shot stopping capability? Especially given that even a single .45 round has been shown to be insufficient, given the right circumstances.

Fire Away!

Have you seen the price of ammo lately? Second shots cost money! And you use up a valuable primer, bullet, and powder, and likely won't be able to replace them without spending even more, or waiting for a lucky hit at wally world...

And good luck being allowed to pick up your brass!

Much less recover the lead.