The end of China as we know it?

[Vonz90]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/ ... 424df65298

[D5CAV]

Nope. Maybe the end of the west's view of China in the sexy dress, makeup and claws hidden in the sleeves, but the China dragon under the dress is still there.

No way Mexico can replace China as a manufacturing hub. Not even India.

US could replace China as a manufacturing powerhouse if we were willing to actually work for the stuff at WalMart. We're talking about a return to the standard of living that your grandparents or great-grandparents experienced. It is a process that will take the same number of decades it took to transfer all that manufacturing to China, so figure about 20 to 30 years.

Europe could make a dent if they were willing to drop the "soft socialism". Similar time frame.

For all the talk about Communism and Socialism, China is a much more Hobbesian place than either US or Europe. You work or you die. Any country that wants to replace China has to take on the same ethos. No more PC and no more "safety nets".

China might be able to get the virus under control, but at huge economic and social cost. That virus is now loose everywhere else. The US can't even control a few dozen people that are known carriers from a cruise ship. Do you think the US can shut down entire cities like in China? Wuhan is called the "Chicago of China" - it's industrial heart. Put Chicago under complete quarantine? How about Mexico?

Yeah, China might be the last man standing.

[Vonz90]

Nope. Maybe the end of the west's view of China in the sexy dress, makeup and claws hidden in the sleeves, but the China dragon under the dress is still there.

No way Mexico can replace China as a manufacturing hub. Not even India.

US could replace China as a manufacturing powerhouse if we were willing to actually work for the stuff at WalMart. We're talking about a return to the standard of living that your grandparents or great-grandparents experienced. It is a process that will take the same number of decades it took to transfer all that manufacturing to China, so figure about 20 to 30 years.

Europe could make a dent if they were willing to drop the "soft socialism". Similar time frame.

For all the talk about Communism and Socialism, China is a much more Hobbesian place than either US or Europe. You work or you die. Any country that wants to replace China has to take on the same ethos. No more PC and no more "safety nets".

China might be able to get the virus under control, but at huge economic and social cost. That virus is now loose everywhere else. The US can't even control a few dozen people that are known carriers from a cruise ship. Do you think the US can shut down entire cities like in China? Wuhan is called the "Chicago of China" - it's industrial heart. Put Chicago under complete quarantine? How about Mexico?

Yeah, China might be the last man standing.

Nope

I have been to China a number if times, I have launched products there and I have moved productions from there back to North America.

China is Mk1 mod 0 semi-industrialized 3rd World country, nothing special. There is almost nothing in China that cannot be done elsewhere at very similar costs. The one and only real advantages they have in any regard is the ease of doing business and low cost of capital/taxes. Even with that, for higher value add products it has been cheaper elsewhere for 10 years or so (current company moved all production back here 3 years ago, last company was in progress if doing that when I left.)

Everybody who has not done that is making plans to now. Not everything will move, but everyone will move the high risk stuff or develope alternatives.

This will not be pretty for China.

[D5CAV]

Nope

I have been to China a number if times, I have launched products there and I have moved productions from there back to North America.

China is Mk1 mod 0 semi-industrialized 3rd World country, nothing special. There is almost nothing in China that cannot be done elsewhere at very similar costs. The one and only real advantages they have in any regard is the ease of doing business and low cost of capital/taxes. Even with that, for higher value add products it has been cheaper elsewhere for 10 years or so (current company moved all production back here 3 years ago, last company was in progress if doing that when I left.)

Everybody who has not done that is making plans to now. Not everything will move, but everyone will move the high risk stuff or develope alternatives.

This will not be pretty for China.

I hope you have a good career doing more of that over the next 20 to 30 years.

As I said, US has the potential to become a manufacturing powerhouse again, Mexico, as the article you initially posted highlighted, not so much.

You are correct that this will not be pretty for China. This will not be pretty for the US or Europe either. These are interesting times.

However, as Yogi Berra said, predictions are hard, especially about the future. We will see...

[HTRN]

As I said, US has the potential to become a manufacturing powerhouse again

We've only recently dropped to #2, and only by 2%, according to the brookings institute.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/glob ... r-nations/

[Jered]

As I said, US has the potential to become a manufacturing powerhouse again

We've only recently dropped to #2, and only by 2%, according to the brookings institute.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/glob ... r-nations/

From what I've heard of China, if you want decent QC you don't really want them.

Also, wrt the coronavirus, 2/3 of Chinese males are smokers, so, that's not going to help the pneumonia which is what seems to be the main cause of deaths.

[MiddleAgedKen]

Quality fade has been an issue, especially in consumer goods. This book is pretty good: Poorly Made in China.

Ironically, the author, a Western middleman, was part of the problem, being unwilling to risk his Chinese counterparts losing face. I had a good friend (unfortunately recently passed) whose approach was the opposite: make them lose face and then rub their noses in it. He claimed his firm never had quality problems after that.

[Vonz90]

As I said, US has the potential to become a manufacturing powerhouse again

We've only recently dropped to #2, and only by 2%, according to the brookings institute.

https://www.brookings.edu/research/glob ... r-nations/

US manufacturing output is at record levels these days (much higher than the 50s, 60s and 70s that everyone pines for).

What collapsed was manufacturing employment, as manufacturing productivity went through the roof. This has both a positive and a negative cause. The positive side was better manufacturing methods and automation. The negative side was moving low productivity jobs off shore.

[BDK]

We have a knowledge issue here - that might be changing as many of the young people are seeing the value of trades over college.

China’s issue, aside from culture, is that all of their plants are now old.

Tesla is a better example - they seem geared toward low cost designs, and flexible manufacturing lines.

[HTRN]

Tesla is a better example - they seem geared toward low cost designs, and flexible manufacturing lines.

Also working the average eorker like dogs and paying like shit, but thats typical of Elon Musk - he just called an all hands meeting at 1am on a Sunday at SpaceX...