Saw this Post About COVID On Faecesbook

[Jered]

Your numbers are wrong, and I'm rather ashamed that I am having to correct you.

First off, the "Flu deaths are 0.1%" is a media talking point that does not reflect a number comparable to COVID19. It's overly simplified, and EVERY SINGLE PERSON who uses the number has gotten it from a media talking point instead of LOOKING AT CDC DATA the figure out what the numbers ARE and HOW TO COMPARE THEM!

So - if I have your attention - I'll explain. If you want to dismiss me, fine.

Inluenza affects anywhere from 10 to 45 million Americans a year. The most recent year for which we have good numbers is 2017-2018 which was also the most severe in 10 years. 45 million SUSPECTED they were sick based on symptoms alone. 21 million went to their doctor, 810,000 were CONFIRMED to have Influenza and received some form of hospital or medical care, and 61,000 died. That's 0.14% - and it's where the media talking point comes from.

HOWEVER, we don't have a comparable number for COVID19.

How about using people who sought medical care? 61,000 deaths out of 21,000,000 is 0.3% - BUT it's still not comparable because we STILL don't know how many people REALLY have COVID19 until we get more testing as well as the antiboty titer test. That leaves us with deaths as a proportion of hospitalizations, which we CAN track - 61,000 out of 810,000 = 7.5% - which approaches the WHO report of 10% influenza deaths/hospitalizations worldwide.

Now, let's look at COVID19:

as of 4/6, there were 12,621 deaths in the U.S. out of 392,594 positive tests. 45,562 people have been hospitalized to date. So, fatality rate out of hospitalizations = 27.7% - and that's HUGE! but if we go by positive tests - which is the ONLY number truly comparable to Influenza, we see 12,621/392,594 which is 3.2%.

Also, we have so far hospitalized 9.9% of positive cases, vs. 2% of influenza cases.

So yes, it's bad, but so far we are ONLY testing the people who "think" they have COVID19, or close-contact with someone who does - The US has tested 2.1 million people - more than any other nation. we have found just under 400,000 positive cases. Compare that to the COMPARABLE Flu numbers of 21 million "suspected" cases in 2017-2018

But let's get back to influenza: 2017-2018 was our most severe year for "Influenza-like-illness" at 45 million people affected by SOMETHING like the flu. However, 2013-2014 saw an outbreak of swine flu H3N2 and H1N1 that affected "only" 30 million people, but resulted in 51,000 deaths. The fatality rate per hospitalization that year was 8.6% and we hospitalized nearly 600,000 people (2% of those suffereing ILI).

2019-2020 is incomplete, and we simply won't have an accurate picture because of COVID19 taking over the scene. However, estimates are that by Dec. 31 the US saw 40,000,000 ILI cases, 20,000,000 medical visits, 400,000 hospitalizations and ~40,000 deaths.

In other words, the worst flu year in over a decade with ~10% fatality rate from influenza this season before COVID19 came on the scene.

It's from SpeakertoLabAnimals via The Writer in Black.