The Gun Counter

I attended Light Urban Search and Rescue Training through my school district. It was a HIGHLY condensed 2-hour academic course, and shockingly the District paid 2 teachers per site to attend. I say it was a shocking development because I took the full 8-hour course in 2009, and they told me if I went I had to use my own sick leave.

I went anyway.


The training was conducted by Wayne from Disaster Survival Skills, LLC. Disclosure: I have no interest, commercial or otherwise, in this company. The training was from the perspective of schools and our ability to help staff and students survive the "Big One." He reviewed light urban search and rescue techniques and procedures, basic lifesaving (breathing, bleeding, shock), mass casualty events, public utilities shutoffs, evacuation, SEMS, and personal preparedness. Because I'd taken the extended course, and I work diligently on preparedness and survival, none of this was new. But it was a dizzying review of things I hadn't thought on in a while.

The scariest part to me is that a Magnitude 7+ earthquake (a regional "Big One") hits every 45 to 144 years, it's been 150 years since the last mega-quake, and there is a 99% probability that a major earthquake (in the 7+ category) will hit the San Andreas Fault any time in the next 30 years. It will be the largest natural disaster in recorded American history. In that case, the ground faults will exceed 8 feet of movement, which means natural gas and water pipelines will be ripped apart underground. The presenter estimates that it could take 3 MONTHS to restore gas, water, and electricity to pre-quake conditions. In other words, he said, if you live in SoCal, you need to be prepared to be without natural gas and water for 3 months. In a worst case scenario, the entire San Andreas fault gives way, resulting in an unprecedented 9.0 earthquake. Nuclear power plants are rated to withstand a 7.0 quake. Anything in excess of that and we'd better put on our lead undies.

I'd always heard 3 days, but holy God was this a wakeup call. I'm prepared for one month of food unassisted, and 15 days of water. I have unlimited first aid and basic lifesaving equipment, and a year's worth of candles, matches, and so on. But 3 months without water? It's time to speed up my acquisition of two 5-gallon gravity filtration systems, and more ammunition.

See, this is why I like being on the Gulf Coast: Hurricanes at least give us a few days heads up...

I have to wonder what if any contingencies could be put into place to deal with this. After seeing the government response to large hurricanes it seems like the place would go thunderdome in short order.

Kommander wrote:I have to wonder what if any contingencies could be put into place to deal with this. After seeing the government response to large hurricanes it seems like the place would go thunderdome in short order.

Build desalination plants? Not really, the greatest problem in an emergency would still be distribution. Though on a day to day basis it might help wrt draining the rivers dry.

Perhaps a better idea would be to not have enormous populations living in a DESERT. <Kinison> YOU LIVE IN A FUCKING DESERT.</Kinison>

There's this:

workinwifdakids wrote:In that case, the ground faults will exceed 8 feet of movement,

Then there's this

Greg wrote:Though on a day to day basis it might help wrt draining the rivers dry.

I'm wondering, with that much movement, would the rivers be where you left them? It's one thing if the movement is lateral, but if it's vertical, the river may have to find another course.

PawPaw wrote:There's this:

workinwifdakids wrote:In that case, the ground faults will exceed 8 feet of movement,

Then there's this

Greg wrote:Though on a day to day basis it might help wrt draining the rivers dry.

I'm wondering, with that much movement, would the rivers be where you left them? It's one thing if the movement is lateral, but if it's vertical, the river may have to find another course.

Hmm. I hadn't even thought of that, figured rivers are pretty big and hard to move around but in a big earthquake your pipes that move the water to where it's needed are likely to be messed up. And if the distribution plumbing is messed up, all the supply in the world won't help you- you'd need rain.

But even without a natural disaster, SoCal is already draining the available river water supply dry. And IIRC is already dependent on, forex, claiming all the "extra" water (above the negotiated rights) in the Colorado River for itself.

Possible rerouting of rivers in SoCal? Two words for ya,

"Salton Sea."

A bunch of us here in the Northeast learned about inadequate preparations after Sandy. I figured a day or two at most without power, we went nine days, and we were better off than a lot of folks (our house was fine, and we had water, including hot water).

Greg wrote:Hmm. I hadn't even thought of that, figured rivers are pretty big and hard to move around

The last time the New Madrid let loose in the early 1800's, it changed the course of the Mississippi river.

If an earthquake can move the Big Muddy around, one could certainly move just about any other stream on this continent.

randy wrote:

Greg wrote:Hmm. I hadn't even thought of that, figured rivers are pretty big and hard to move around

The last time the New Madrid let loose in the early 1800's, it changed the course of the Mississippi river.

If an earthquake can move the Big Muddy around, one could certainly move just about any other stream on this continent.

Er, wasn't that the most powerful earthquake in the continental US in recorded history? With a river looping to cross directly over the fault line 3 times? Kind of special circumstances.

But it was interesting doing a little reading about the Salton Sea/Basin. Odd that the Colorado River seems to have created the circumstances that cause the Basin to not be part of the Gulf of California, while also occasionally filling the basin. A large earthquake seems like it might magnify the dumbassery that helped create the current lake.