Preppers - supplying Humungus since 1981

[Dinochrome One]

Gold is worth exactly zero in the event of a major economic collapse.

100 pounds of gold isn't worth a loaf of bread, a quart of whiskey, or a pound of coffee.

Is gold soft enough to be made into bullets?

It's soft enough, but it melts at over two thousand degrees F. Lead is the stuff for (molded) bullets.

[Vonz90]

Full society collapse is not a common thing, and the only times it has occurred on a big scale involved barbarian invaders who stayed.

War (particularly revolution and civil war) can be nasty for everyone involved, but eventually people go back to doing things the way they do them.

Prep for emergencies (riots, hurricanes, earthquakes, etc.) where thing to to hell for a while. Sure, that makes sense.

If you are worried about some Apocalypse, yeah, not worth the effort because there is no way to gauge that your efforts are well directed in the first place.

How many bombs did we drop on Germany, Japan, Italy, etc, and their societies did not collapse. Look at all of the crap Russian went through from 1914-1948 and their society did not collapse (at least, not for long). Same thing applies to China from 1933-1948.

Why anyone things things are more delicate now than any of those cases, I have no idea.

[Weetabix]

IMHO, Niven & Pournelle wrote the very best Sci-Fi book about this type of occurrence.

Lucifer's Hammer? Footfall? Oath of Fealty?

[Weetabix]

Full society collapse is not a common thing, and the only times it has occurred on a big scale involved barbarian invaders who stayed.

I think we have that building up a head of steam from south of the border, down Mexico way, don't we?

Why anyone things things are more delicate now than any of those cases, I have no idea.

That whole 2008 crash thing was based on short-sighted and greedy lending policies. I lost a lot in that, personally, and it was all due to secondary effects. I didn't lose my house, and I had no stocks to speak of. My business depends on people spending money to build things, and they quit for a while.

I suspect the thinking is that so many things are so tied and interconnected on a shaky financial house of cards that it could all go splat if people quit believing in Tinkerbell. /mixed metaphors

[Aaron]

To be more clear... greedy and short sighted lending WAS a problem... but it was actually the consequence not the cause.

You talking about the Community Reinvestment Act?

[Yogimus]

More like


.GOV: Why are you not lending to minorities, you racist banks?
- Minorities have fuckall to do with the decision, these folks can't pay it back
.GOV: That's bullshit, we will guarantee the loans
- Ok, fuck it. Money for everyone

1. Demand soars, with it house prices
2. The bad loans didn't get paid back
3. Demand disappears overnight, house prices bottom out, non-guaranteed homeloan holders get fucked in the ass

.GOV: BANKS! WTF?!
- Told you.

[Vonz90]

Full society collapse is not a common thing, and the only times it has occurred on a big scale involved barbarian invaders who stayed.

I think we have that building up a head of steam from south of the border, down Mexico way, don't we?

Why anyone things things are more delicate now than any of those cases, I have no idea.

That whole 2008 crash thing was based on short-sighted and greedy lending policies. I lost a lot in that, personally, and it was all due to secondary effects. I didn't lose my house, and I had no stocks to speak of. My business depends on people spending money to build things, and they quit for a while.

I suspect the thinking is that so many things are so tied and interconnected on a shaky financial house of cards that it could all go splat if people quit believing in Tinkerbell. /mixed metaphors

Crashes are not new. They were relatively common in the 19th century having occurred in 1819, 1837, 1857, 1873 (sometimes called the first depression as it lasted 4 years), 1884, 1893, 1896, 1901, 1907 and of course 1929.

The general trend is for them to be farther apart AND with less impact in the mid-20th century up to now because in general the standards for bank solvency and general financial sophistication has made the overall system less sensitive to shock.

While there are some serious concerns that some of the "reforms" which have been pushed through are sub-optimal, it is a stretch to conclude that we are going to get to a collapse so big that society collapses to nothing. Frankly, I don't think that is possible from only a financial side of things. If it is, someone is going to have to show a mechanism to make it happen. While I have heard some, they are mostly from people with such a limited understanding of economics that they are meaningless.

In the end, a lot of non-time critical economic activity gets delayed or side-tracked, but people still have to live/eat/etc so there is a bottom to everyone of these events.

And of course, timing is everything. I had an uncle who was a great guy. A carpenter by trade, worked hard, made good money, lived simply. He was sort of an extra dad to me because I spent a lot time with him when I was a kid. He grew up in the Depression and was always sure that another one was coming, so he never invested because it was a fool's game to him. Well, he passed on a couple of years ago. I imagine his widow would have rather had some extra investments for her later years (thankfully he had a pension through the union, but hey that was an investment too, it just wasn't him doing the investments directly).

[Aesop]

I was raised by parents who were both products of the Depression, and I'm here to tell you that acting like the next one is just around the corner is just as short-sightedly stupid and foolish on a personal level as acting like another one will never happen again.

[Weetabix]

More like


.GOV: Why are you not lending to minorities, you racist banks?
- Minorities have fuckall to do with the decision, these folks can't pay it back
.GOV: That's bullshit, we will guarantee the loans
- Ok, fuck it. Money for everyone

1. Demand soars, with it house prices
2. The bad loans didn't get paid back
3. Demand disappears overnight, house prices bottom out, non-guaranteed homeloan holders get fucked in the ass

.GOV: BANKS! WTF?!
- Told you.

Well, that's what I meant. Hazards of posting quickly with other things on your mind. But the final response (with intermediate dialogue) was:
- No money fo' you! /soup nazi

So the guys I designed for weren't building anything. I do actually think the CRA pushed it mightily, too.

[Weetabix]

While there are some serious concerns that some of the "reforms" which have been pushed through are sub-optimal, it is a stretch to conclude that we are going to get to a collapse so big that society collapses to nothing. Frankly, I don't think that is possible from only a financial side of things.

I'm not sure I believe that either. I was just saying what I think the thinking is.

In the end, a lot of non-time critical economic activity gets delayed or side-tracked, ...

E.G. my projects.