Russian Sanctions

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D5CAV
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Russian Sanctions

Post by D5CAV »

Stuff that Russia exports (mostly raw materials): https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/t ... -resources

Some things I didn't know:

Indonesia is number 1 coal exporter, Russia is number 3, I didn't know either were so high. Not a big deal, coal is everywhere.

I knew China was number 1 steel exporter, I didn't realize Russia was number 3. Also not a big deal. Steel is everywhere.

Russia is actually pretty close to RSA in Palladium and Platinum. I thought Russia was a weak number 2. This is a problem.

Good luck getting a new catalytic converter when you fail your smog test. Those use either Palladium or Platinum. If Russia is banned, the only Palladium and Platinum is coming from RSA.
None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.” Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
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D5CAV
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Re: Russian Sanctions

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Now China Sanctions: https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-ex ... emn-russia

Yeah, I guess Xi Jinping will have to cancel his planned vacation at Mar-a-Lago and Donald will lose some money.

That phone call with Uncle Joe didn't go quite as planned, either:
Geopolitical analysts, including ones who cover markets too, note that underneath the algo-triggering headlines the reality was that Beijing:

Blamed the US for the crisis by expanding NATO, rather than Russia expanding Russia;

Stated the US would have to resolve it using a Chinese idiom;

That this includes addressing Russian security needs too, and linking this all back to Taiwan;

Saying China would help if the US backs off on trade war, tech war, AUKUS, the Quad, etc.
If any of you are interested, that Chinese idiom is roughly translated as:
The one who puts the bell on the tiger's tail is the one who gets to take the bell off the tiger's tail.
Referring, of course, to the February 22, 2014 coup that put someone who made a comic career playing a clownish President of Ukraine the actual clownish President of Ukraine.

Yes, you read that right. It's as if Russia engineered a coup where Alec Baldwin took over from Trump after a successful "Ukraine" impeachment.

Seeing these China sanctions directly from Secretary of State Tony Blinken, the incredible outpouring of stupid from the US State Department starts to make sense. To use another Chinese idiom "If the fish smells rotten, then look at the head".

If Tony Blinken thinks it's a good idea to further push China, India and Russia together, he is a special kind of stupid. That starts to explain how other special stupid people like Ned Price and Vicky Nuland managed to get hired.
None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.” Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
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D5CAV
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Re: Russian Sanctions

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I was thinking about those sanctions on China following-on the sanctions on Russia, which made me go back to those MSM headlines talking about how "China was standing with USA in Russia sanctions": https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ommodities

Lots of stuff about how all the China banks were going to stop issuing USD LOCs for trading Russian commodities:
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd.’s offshore units stopped issuing U.S. dollar-denominated letters of credit for purchases of physical Russian commodities ready for export, two people familiar with the matter said
Buried in all the examples of how China was going to stop using USD to "punish" Russia was this little item:
Yuan-denominated letters of credit are still available for some clients, subject to approvals from senior executives, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private information.
Hmmm

So China isn't going to trade with Russia using USD, but will do "some" trading in RMB. That sounds a little like Brer Rabbit begging Brer Fox not to throw him in the Brer Patch.

So I called an old acquaintance from the bad old days before those SWIFT jerks in Brussels got their tentacles into every s###hole on the planet.

I left that business when SWIFT managed to squeeze almost every penny out of cross-border transactions. He went to Kazakhstan for several years to do off-SWIFT deals in uranium and other stuff. Vlad's "humanitarian intervention" in Kazakhstan (in that case with the support of the clown President of Kazakhstan) brought him back to LA.

So I asked him what amount of RMB denominated transactions for Russian commodities might be approved by the senior management of Chinese banks.

He laughed and said "I guarantee you there are no limits on the amount of Yuan denominated deals for Russian commodities those Chinese banks will do!"

Yeah, so much for those sanctions. :lol:
None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.” Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
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D5CAV
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Re: Russian Sanctions

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First, let's go way back in the "wayback machine" to 1971: https://www.financialsense.com/contribu ... rs-for-oil

So Nixon and Kissinger got OPEC to agree to only accept USD for oil. All is well and good, until us.gov tells Saddam that he can't use USD, so Saddam decides to accept gold for oil. Yeah, that lasted about a year, then someone "found" WMDs and it was "game on".

Things are well and good again, until us.gov tells Gaddafi that he can't use USD, so Gaddafi decides to accept gold for oil. That lasted less than a year, then it was "We came, we saw, he died, ha, ha, ha!!"

Now Vlad says, "Hey, Uncle Joe says we can't use USD anymore, so if you want gas, you need to pay in Rubles": https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... d2717c0e03
“It makes no sense whatsoever,” Putin added, “to supply our goods to the European Union, the United States and receive payment in dollars, euros and a number of other currencies.”

As a result, he said he was announcing “measures” to switch to payments for “our natural gas, supplied to so-called unfriendly countries” in Russian rubles.

The Russian president didn’t say when exactly the new policy will take effect. He instructed the country’s central bank to work out a procedure for natural gas buyers to acquire rubles in Russia.
Yeah, Rubles have recovered about half of their loss after after that announcement.

Like these morons couldn't see this coming?

For all the whining in DC and NYC, this is not "the nuclear option". Sure, it weakens the USDs monopoly, but us.gov has been weakening that monopoly for decades with bipartisan idiocy from Clinton to Bush 2 to BHO.

The "nuclear option" is for Putin is to say he wants gold for his oil and gas. The difference between Putin doing this and Saddam or Gaddafi, is that Putin has real "kinetic" nukes, not just figurative "nuclear options".

I don't think Putin will play the gold-card because he knows that really is the "nuclear option". That means the game that the Bank Owners have been playing for over 100 years is over. Those a##holes will take the house down before they have to work a real job. Those bank owners who (as George Carlin explained) actually control Biden's handlers will order their unholy minions in DC to invoke the other "nuclear option" with "kinetic" nukes.
None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.” Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
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D5CAV
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Re: Russian Sanctions

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Wow! Vlad just showed the "nuclear option" card: https://bitcoinmagazine.com/markets/rus ... or-bitcoin

Buried in this collective orgasm from the Bitcoin community is Russia Duma comment on gold:
The State Duma’s energy committee chair echoed Putin’s decision while adding that the country should also accept gold.

“When we exchange with Western countries…they should pay in hard money,” Zavalny said. “And hard money is gold, or they must pay in currencies which are convenient for us, and that is the national currency – ruble. That relates to our ‘unfriendly’ countries.”
I didn't expect Vlad to make that move. Doing the "Saddam or Gaddafi" thing on Vlad is not an option. He has "kinetic" nuclear options. This pushes the Bank Owners to get a resolution in Ukraine. They will want to get Russia back doing business in USD before too many contracts get rewritten in Rubles and gold.

Coming from Russian Duma and not directly from Vlad is a "tell" that Vlad is open to negotiation, and that his goal is not to bring down the whole banking cartel.

The Bank Owners are like "Corleone and Barzini" in "The Godfather"; it's nothing personal, only business.

I think they will throw Zelinsky under the bus. He will be looking at axles soon.
None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.” Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
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Re: Russian Sanctions

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US Dollar Defaults: https://currencycentralinc.com/us-dolla ... ligations/
For the first time since 1971 the US has defaulted on it’s banking obligations and the Petro Dollar system marking ‘peak Dollar.’
However, is this stupidity, or part of the plan? Some of the Bilderberg-Schwab references are a little too "Alex Jones" for me, but there is still the "Tiffin Paradox" problem of a global reserve currency, which is the big reason I'm not sure China wants the RMB as global reserve currency.
Safe Haven Default – The US Fed seized $800 Bn + in Russian and affiliated assets. If you are an investor not from the United States, you are going to think twice about keeping your funds in ‘safe’ USA.
True, but not the first time. I know a banker who was tasked with safeguarding Iran's assets under Jimmy Carter. That money was eventually given back to Iran, plus interest. So who paid the interest? You did, or more accurately, your fathers and grandfathers. I wasn't paying taxes then, either.
Petro Dollar Default – By sanctioning the world’s largest oil producer, Russia demanded payments for Oil in Rubles, making the new global go to Currency for Oil – Rubles. In parallel, Russia pegged the Ruble to Gold, making the Ruble backed by Oil and Gold.
Also true, but also not the first time. Iran, Iraq and Libya were also sanctioned. Iran never went the "gold" option. Saddam started trading oil for gold to get around us.gov sanctions. Gulf War 2. Coincidence? Gaddafi was pushing a "gold backed dinar". In less than a year it was "We came, we saw, he died, ha, ha, ha!". Yeah, just a coincidence.

The difference here is Russia has as many nukes as us.gov, plus significant delivery options. Gulf War 2 and "We came, we saw, he died" is not an option.
SWIFT shift to SPFS-CIPS – The Russian ban on SWIFT forced those banned to seek alternatives. Both Russia and China had SWIFT alternatives that they’ve been developing for many years such as the CIPS system and Singapore based Nium.
Many countries have been given "time outs" on SWIFT. Not as big a deal as even these finance geeks will make you believe.
Shift to Yuan – Before the events surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, China was perceived as a toxic house of cards. That has drastically changed with Billions flooding into the Yuan not only from Russia but from partners of Russia who will happily settle their transactions in Yuan
Not as significant as many would have you believe. RMB is only interesting to Russia if they have stuff to buy from China. I don't think Russia wants to see RMB as a new global reserve currency, and I'm not sure China wants that either.
Abandoned World Reserve Status – During crisis, the Fed supplies Dollars as needed via swap agreements and the US Government supplies aid through various NGOs and DC controlled entities like the IMF, World Bank, etc. The actions against Russia are unprecedented.
As I highlighted above, this is not "unprecedented", and it might be part of the plan to shift to a new global reserve currency. Maybe the IMF coin that Keynes wanted back in 1944.
Hypersonics – The US Dollar is not ‘backed by nothing’ as many claim, it’s actually backed by bombs – or in other words, US Military Superiority.
Bingo! Here's where Russia holds the cards. In nukes, it is on par with us.gov. Its Navy is a weak number 2 to the USN, but miles ahead of China.
BRICS / OPEC seeking alternatives – Now that many are forced to convert to Ruble or Yuan to buy Oil, many are seeking alternative payment networks.
Yes, but this has been going on for decades. The volume is still about 10% of Eurodollar flows.
US Net Importer – Since 80% of goods are manufactured in China et al, US economic actors need to pay for the same materials in with their hyperinflated dollars. In other words, the value of the US Dollar decreasing in value can be seen at the pump and at the grocery store.
Yup. But this has also been going on for decades. Some argue since 1944, but clearly since 1971. This is part of the "Tiffin Paradox" problem.
So having made all these points why is the US Dollar index up? Because all the currencies in the index are backed by the US Dollar, and the US Dollar is exporting hyperinflation.
This is the best part of this piece. He gives a good case as to why the VIX is up while us.gov is busy trying to kill the USD.
Here’s the kicker, they have mapped this out long ago. It’s now obvious that Bitcoin was an experiment in monetary slavery labeled as liberal freedom. “Who needs the banks when you have Bitcoin” they said, a system built on SHA-256 which was patented by the NSA. OK, RIGHT!
Yup. I've been telling this to all my "bitcoin" evangelist friends for years now. I think this is a test market for a future "fed coin" or "IMF coin".
We should all ask ourselves why would policy makers want to ruin their own currency. There’s no short answer to this but in one word it’s: Profit. This is the Economic Hit Man / Soros model being applied on the country that created it. The Dulles Brothers, Kermit Roosevelt, and William Stephenson (Intrepid) created an economic model of Imperialism mixed with Merchant Capitalism (Gunboat Monopoly) right as the Brits passed the torch to the Muricans. The Yanks get the credit but we all know who is still pulling the strings from London – the same group that controls the Gold market and half of the world’s finances.
Yeah, yeah, right. This is where he starts to devolve in "Alex Jones" terrifory.

I tend to go with Napoleon's Maxim: "Never ascribe to conspiracy that which can be explained by mere incompetence".
None are more hopelessly enslaved than those who falsely believe they are free.” Johann Wolfgang von Goethe
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HTRN
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Re: Russian Sanctions

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I don't get that anybody is still surprised by this they were/are communist dictatorships, where lying, fraud, etc, really a thing goes, so long as it ultimately furthers the goals of the state.
HTRN, I would tell you that you are an evil fucker, but you probably get that a lot ~ Netpackrat

Describing what HTRN does as "antics" is like describing the wreck of the Titanic as "a minor boating incident" ~ First Shirt
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