Up to 80% of people can't get teh covidz

[blackeagle603]

lots of hand wringing in those articles, some discussion of updating recommendations in specific locales. Not even much smoke in those links, certainly no fire that i can see.

Oh no! Daily "case rates" are high!!! read" EVERYBODY PANIC!

That's crap reporting.
Tell us what daily ICU admissions and loading are.
Tell us what daily fatality rate is.
Tell us what the IFR (infection fatality rate) in total, as well as in the here and now with improved treatments.

But why do you imagine those numbers aren't in any of that reporting you linked?
Could it would make the story a big nothing burger? Nahhhhh, that's crazy talking.

[Vonz90]

https://healthy-skeptic.com/2020/11/18/ ... ask-study/ follow the science

[Jered]

https://healthy-skeptic.com/2020/11/18/ ... ask-study/ follow the science

I saw that story on LI.

[g-man]

Oh no! Daily "case rates" are high!!! read" EVERYBODY PANIC!

It's driving me NUTS that everybody is still reporting total positive cases, vs total active cases. Because a place that had 10,000 cases two months ago, but zero now is not risky... but a place which had zero cases two months ago, and has 5000 cases now... is somewhere I might not want to be.

https://healthy-skeptic.com/2020/11/18/ ... ask-study/ follow the science

Fundamental flaw in that study: "Both the mask wearing arm and the non-mask wearing arm were told to follow social distancing measures." So, both groups were already told to do the MOST effective thing, and now we're trying to measure something further down the Pareto chart. Okay...


That said:
Masks are not a magic talisman that ward off COVID. Unless you're wearing an N95 mask you're not significantly reducing your risk of contracting pretty much anything. You are reducing your risk of spreading your asymptomatic case should social distancing not be maintained. What masks are, however, is a visible signal designating your competence at following the appropriate guidelines (social distancing, hand washing / personal hygiene, etc). I'm not saying they're a 'dog whistle' for the left, or anything like that either. They're a 'tell'.

This gives us a heuristic for classifying people:
Wearing a mask appropriately - Signals that you're probably more likely to follow appropriate guidelines.
Wearing a mask inappropriately - Signals that your probably less likely to follow appropriate guidelines.
Not wearing a mask - Likelihood of following appropriate guidelines is unknown.

This is standard lizard-brain behavior - When it's easier to identify the things that might kill me, I don't have to spend as much mental energy, and get less stressed out by the situation. A sabre-toothed tigre COVID ain't, but after months (and months) of this, I understand why people are tired of having to wear masks, and being berated for not doing so; AND why some people are getting more and more freaked out by non-mask-wearers. I personally tend to avoid the people who can't wear a mask properly more quickly than the non-masked folks, mostly because it's an easier evaluation to do. It does take some more mental energy to size up someone not wearing a mask as to their ability to follow the rest of the social protocols right now, but I'm not getting stressed about that shit anymore.

I've been running the numbers for our Division for the last couple of weeks, and it's becoming apparent that with basic mitigation (clean your workspace, wash your damn hands you filthy animals, etc), we can get our rates to decrease. Fully convinced that community leadership everywhere lacks the ability to get ahead of growth curves, so lockdowns are going to continue to happen. Rather than continuing to emphasize valid health protection measures early, they get behind the curve and over-compensate after they already missed the bus. Are lockdowns effective? Yes. Are they necessary? No. We can achieve the same level of case transmission reduction by getting enough people to be a little bit more standoffish, and to wash their damn hands. But "Joe's gonna Joe", so dumb shit continues to occur.

The local ICU has increased from being at ~60% capacity to ~76% capacity, which IS higher than normal, but not necessarily concerning yet. Regarding Sweden, they're definitely not 'past it'. Long-run average for fatality rate hasn't dropped (still ~1.47% of infections result in death, 10x that of flu), and their

[blackeagle603]

It's driving me NUTS that everybody is still reporting total positive cases, vs total active cases.

ding,ding,ding! We have a winner!
Frustrates me no end the focus remains on that as the actionable metric rather than on ICU loading and trends without taking into account trend in IFR (infection fatality rate) which is downward for whatever *reasons.

Add to that, a positive on a test does not a case make. A sick person a case makes.

The testing thing is a real hash currently. Can't imagine relying on a measurement that unreliable as a process control input in the manufacturing world I live in. These people, the "experts" driving policy like lockdowns from that sort of data wouldn't last a week in a decision making capacity in any work-a-day world I've experienced.

*Improved treatment, culling of the herd, more folks adapting earlier to improve their resilience and resistance to infection, more people self treating early and effectively w/out checking themselves into the system with things like nebulized H202, mega C dosing, liposomal glutathione, Zinc+Quercitin, melatonin, HCQ , invermicin protocols, (or combinations of all the above. HCQ and invermicin is easily purchased online without scrips. I may or may not have made online purchase of HCQ myself.
I have set up for H2O2 +iodine nebulizing and it has seen some use in the fam'

[g-man]

Haven't seen the downtrend in IFR here yet, but I suppose since we had a smaller susceptible population in the first place (most of the county is military, military affiliated, or retirees of the 'old' variety (vice the 'very old' variety that COVID is good at killing off). That is of course anecdotal, and I do agree that the laundry list you mention have helped, but aren't being trumpeted as helping since Pfizer et. al. can't profit off mega-C dosing etc.

Looking at it from a 'protect the force, protect the mission' perspective, I'm not only worried about who gets dead, but the readiness effects on units while people are quarantined, and the 2nd and 3rd order problems from the percentages who have long-term follow-on issues incompatible with continued active service.

[Vonz90]

https://healthy-skeptic.com/2020/11/18/ ... ask-study/ follow the science

Fundamental flaw in that study: "Both the mask wearing arm and the non-mask wearing arm were told to follow social distancing measures." So, both groups were already told to do the MOST effective thing, and now we're trying to measure something further down the Pareto chart. Okay...

But that is part of the point, if masks are only marginally effective but wearing them gets people to drop their guard, the net effect can balance out or even be negative. That is just as important as how the work in a controlled situation.

[blackeagle603]

Haven't seen the downtrend in IFR here yet

If it is even being tracked, I'd be surprised if it WAS reported.

[blackeagle603]

I keep coming back to this. People who work with viruses like this for a living don't rely on masks. They aren't in MOPS gear but more or less...

Population case studies (military populations on ships, in training commands, cruise ships, Sweden etc) have shown that the Rona isn't stopped by masks.
Mask only make a longer time constant for the spread.

The virus continues to spread and then starts approaching zero/daily infected as 17-20% of the population has been infected.
It just takes a bit longer to get to 17-20% with heavy use of masks.

How can that be if herd immunity is thought to need ~80% infected?
Well, that 80% number assumes a homogenous population with equal susceptibility to being infected.

So it makes sense intuitively since some significant % of the population is known now to have natural T-cell immunity to the 'rona.

So that T-cell immune population + 17-20% of the rest of the population = herd immunity approaches

[randy]

I guess CINCHOUSE and I are in the bottom 20%. She tested positive two weeks ago and I got my results about a week later (took her 2 days from test to results, me 5 days)

No major impact for either of us other than occasional coughing fits and fatigue. Measured O2 levels several times a day and neither of us dropped below 91%. Glad for online ordering and curbside pickup for groceries.

For me, at this time of year, the symptoms were hard to tell from the effects of my neuropathy and normal seasonal allergies.