The Gun Counter

Like I said, we can take it fast or slow; Omaha Beach or Chicago.

Yes, everyone will eventually get this, which means the area under the curve is the same, but we want to "flatten the curve". We want to take it slow.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4J0d59dd-qM

Eventually, everyone gets this:
Maybe 15% asymptomatic
Maybe 80% mild flu (this is not regular flu, so mild doesn't mean sniffles, it means really miserable, just not hospitalized)
Maybe 5% of those who start with "mild" symptoms progress to require hospitalization
Half of those hospitalized end up in ICU
Half of those in ICU end up on a ventilator
Half of those on a ventilator end up dead

If you need hospitalization, and there isn't a bed, or if you need ICU and there isn't a bed, now you are in G-d's hands. You are like the guy on Omaha Beach the medics put on a stretcher outside the medic tent because the doctors are still busy trying to keep the guy ahead of you alive.

If you need a ventilator and there isn't one available, just skip the last step and go directly to dead.

Regarding the 80% who get "mild" symptoms, here's a guy with "mild" symptoms, meaning he didn't have to be hospitalized.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H9ZuLcmjWho

He qualified to represent South Africa in the 2020 Olympics in swimming. He is in way better physical condition than me. I'm going out on a limb here and say that he's in way better physical condition than most of you as well.

Eventually you are all going to get this. Hope you don't require hospitalization.

And if you do, hope you are not the one waiting for a ventilator

Worldwide, it is more like 86% who end up on the ventilator die. Seattle is apparently doing a little better at 70%.

Feel good thread of the day

It is actually 50% or higher asymptomatic. It is nasty stuff, but the herd immunity is also quietly building up. Sure as heck if you are over 60 or compromise immunity, stay isolated. If not, on coukd make the argument that it is your patriotic duty to get it (shrug)

I wouldn't count on herd immunity building up to anything significant until a vaccine becomes widely available, given the information out there about people recovering only to be reinfected later. Apparently some survivors have some immunity, and others don't. Like much else to do with the virus, it's not really well understood at this time.

Netpackrat wrote: ↑Mon Mar 30, 2020 7:44 pm Worldwide, it is more like 86% who end up on the ventilator die. Seattle is apparently doing a little better at 70%.

Apparently it hasn't gotten to the bums yet.

Regarding percentage of "Infected but Asymptomatic", the carrier TR (CVN-71) offers a tested control group:

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/sailor ... w-infected

"We've tested almost the whole crew now. We still have about 1,000 tests to report out. But 3,170 tested negative, 416 tested positive, 187 of those were symptomatic, 229 were asymptomatic. We still have 1,164 pending results," the Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. John Hyten told reporters at the Pentagon on Thursday

So about 55% asymptomatic on the first set of tests. It will be interesting to see how many of those who are asymptomatic develop symptoms over the next 2 weeks, which seems to be the incubation period.

So far, only 1 out of the 187 symptomatic requires hospitalization, so about 0.5%

Keep in mind that a Navy ship (or any other .mil organization) is going to have a skewed population - the bulk of the crew is going to be under 30 years old, and the whole crew will be weighted heavily on the side of XY chromosomes. Also few if any asthmatics, diabetics, folks with chronic immune compromise.

In some ways, especially the age demographics, the opposite of that cruise ship.

Now, here's another data point, from MIT, that may point to the percentage of asymptomatic infected being much, much higher - the sample area had 446 confirmed cases, but analysis of sewage indicates over 100,000 infected persons in the survey area. (I can't read more than was quoted on Instapundit, because the site wants me to disable my adblocker.)

https://www.bostonherald.com/2020/04/08 ... e-mit-lab/

If that's true, the herd immunity may be a lot larger already than thought.

Langenator wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 11:11 am Keep in mind that a Navy ship (or any other .mil organization) is going to have a skewed population - the bulk of the crew is going to be under 30 years old, and the whole crew will be weighted heavily on the side of XY chromosomes. Also few if any asthmatics, diabetics, folks with chronic immune compromise.

In some ways, especially the age demographics, the opposite of that cruise ship.

Yup.

Another data point that supports that thesis:

https://www.zerohedge.com/health/larges ... alizations

The study, consisting of 4,103 patient records of those who tested positive for the virus between March 1st and April 2nd, revealed that "The chronic condition with the strongest association with critical illness was obesity, with a substantially higher odds ratio than any cardiovascular or pulmonary disease,"

Not a lot of obesity in China though:

Of note, Chinese researchers studying 577 COVID-19 patients at one hospital found that older patients with inflammation were most likely to die of the disease after 12 days (study here).
In a nutshell, they found that those over 60-years-old with a CRP (C-Reactive protein, an inflammation marker) over 34 mg/L had a 33.2% chance of dying within 12 days of admission to the hospital.
In short, older, obese people with inflammatory conditions appear to be the least likely to survive COVID-19.

Yeah, probably not a lot of those on a USN carrier.

Another view of How the Novel Chinese Virus kills. The linked article is pretty good. I'm not a doctor, so I can't say whether it's accurate or not. It jives with other stuff I've read.

I'd seen a video early on of an NYFC ER doctor saying high pressure ventilators made it worse, but I don't remember where I saw it.