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blackeagle603 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:55 pm
The more I look at it, the less I know. The input numbers are all hosed up. Deaths being coded as C-19 that have no real bearing on the actual C-19 problem.
CDC guidelines might as well say "Just code every death from here on out as C-19 if there's any respiratory thing going. Relevant or not to cause of death. Confirmed diagnosis or not."
Elsewhere, in breaking headline news: "Skydiver who forgot his parachute dies of Covid-19"
More like if anybody dies and test positive, its atributed to complications from covid19. BUT THEYVE ALWAYS DONE THAT WITH REGARDS TO INFECTIOUS DISEASE OUTBREAKS.
BTW, Current death count is 16,700 in the US. I think its gonna top a quarter million before it burns itself out.
HTRN, I would tell you that you are an evil fucker, but you probably get that a lot ~ Netpackrat
Describing what HTRN does as "antics" is like describing the wreck of the Titanic as "a minor boating incident" ~ First Shirt
blackeagle603 wrote: ↑Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:55 pm
The more I look at it, the less I know. The input numbers are all hosed up. Deaths being coded as C-19 that have no real bearing on the actual C-19 problem.
CDC guidelines might as well say "Just code every death from here on out as C-19 if there's any respiratory thing going. Relevant or not to cause of death. Confirmed diagnosis or not."
Elsewhere, in breaking headline news: "Skydiver who forgot his parachute dies of Covid-19"
More like if anybody dies and test positive, its atributed to complications from covid19. BUT THEYVE ALWAYS DONE THAT WITH REGARDS TO INFECTIOUS DISEASE OUTBREAKS.
BTW, Current death count is 16,700 in the US. I think its gonna top a quarter million before it burns itself out.
I am not saying it is not a nasty piece of work, but the math never really supported numbers much above 80k or so. That is bad, and of course it coukd mutate or something else, but That is all speculation.
Current prediction is its going to peak at the end of the month. Its a straight line on the graphs for death. Its going to get ugly in the next ten days as all the people we put on vents start dying,as its someing like 70% of those go on them die of complications within 2 weeks.
HTRN, I would tell you that you are an evil fucker, but you probably get that a lot ~ Netpackrat
Describing what HTRN does as "antics" is like describing the wreck of the Titanic as "a minor boating incident" ~ First Shirt
blackeagle603 wrote: ↑Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:34 am
and now folks hypothesizing it's been present in CA since fall building local herd immunity. Which could explain the "California Paradox" of lower spread rates. Inspite of major international entry point from China. Something like 8000/day arrive from China in CA in normal times.
MONTEREY, Calif. —
Researchers at Stanford Medicine are working to find out what proportion of Californians have already had COVID-19. The new study could help policymakers make more informed decisions during the coronavirus pandemic.
The team tested 3,200 people at three Bay Area locations on Saturday using an antibody test for COVID-19 and expect to release results in the coming weeks. The data could help to prove COVID-19 arrived undetected in California much earlier than previously thought.
The hypothesis that COVID-19 first started spreading in California in the fall of 2019 is one explanation for the state's lower than expected case numbers.
As of Tuesday, the state had 374 reported COVID-19 fatalities in a state of 40 million people, compared to New York which has seen 14 times as many fatalities and has a population half that...
If it was present in CA in the fall, that means it was present in China even earlier than the mid-December generally acknowledged emergence time frame.
HTRN wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:37 am
Current prediction is its going to peak at the end of the month. Its a straight line on the graphs for death. Its going to get ugly in the next ten days as all the people we put on vents start dying,as its someing like 70% of those go on them die of complications within 2 weeks.
Interesting, where are you seeing that? Everything I see predicts a peak this WE or next week.
But don't use that anecdotal, unsupported HCQ protocol! Dying is preferrable to taking the risk of a med judged safe as a prophylatic for pregnant women.
Vonz90 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 10, 2020 4:08 pm
Interesting, where are you seeing that? Everything I see predicts a peak this WE or next week.
That pandemic researcher i previously mentioned predicted mid april at the earliest, with end of the month far more likely. Considering that the death rate is only now starting to slow down, albiet slightly(ie not doubling every 4 days), i think he may be on the money.
Worldometer is reporting 20,580 deaths currently, and more sobering, a further 11,471 in critical condition, which is pretty much a death sentence for 3/4s of them going by statistics so far.
It may be that total infection rate may peak in the next ten days, but total deaths wont flatten out for at least a week after..
HTRN, I would tell you that you are an evil fucker, but you probably get that a lot ~ Netpackrat
Describing what HTRN does as "antics" is like describing the wreck of the Titanic as "a minor boating incident" ~ First Shirt
