A breakdown of the voting numbers

[mekender]

}In 2004 12.5% of all voters, or 15.725 million, were Black, and went roughly 75% for Kerry, good for roughly 11.8 million votes. This year I concede to Obama 100% of that vote, an increase of 4 million votes.

}In 2004, women accounted for 67.3 million votes cast. Excluding the 9.1M Black women leaves 58.18 M women unaccounted for. Kerry took roughly 60% or 34.9M. This year roughly 8% of those women, or 2.8 million, have stated they will go for McCain, which leaves Obama a net pickup of 1.2 million votes so far.

}The Bradley effect, if it's real, and I suspect it is, costs Obama roughly 6% of the remaining non-Black 2004 democrat vote of 43.6M or 2.6 mil. which leaves Obama with a negative 1.4 mil. or 1.1% of the 04 vote, which accrue to McCain.

}Not accounted for is the additional support Sarah Palin may pick up from Kerry voters (I don't think she loses any from Bush 04 numbers). And, the crackdown on ACORN, which is responsible for maybe 75% of organized democrat voter fraud (the NAACP is probably 2nd), means Obama will lose counted-on numbers from critical states, like Ohio.

}Even with his 100% Black vote, Obama is, at this point, looking at a 3.6% defeat as opposed to Kerry's 2.5% loss. If every other Kerry democrat (not already accounted for by Bradley) votes for Obama, will 2.4 million Bush voters switch to a radical Barack Obama?

I'm one of those "mad at Bush" voters (spending, immigration) but there's not a chance in hell I vote for a Marxist radical. If Republicans turn out in the same relative numbers as 2004, Obama loses. And by the way, in 2004 Republicans were 50% of all voters, so how is it that pollsters are still weight their polls 53-47 Democrat?

[drice]

I've seen some studies (I haven't verified them) that show a majority of respondents to polls are democrats.

Don't know if they are being called or asked more often for their opinions than are Republicans, or if Republicans just tell the pollsters to FOAD and move on with their lives, which is what I do.

Either way, it skews the numbers towards the dems.

In any case, I expect Obama to get his ass handed to him next month.

[Bill Heinbach]

Don't know if they are being called or asked more often for their opinions than are Republicans, or if Republicans just tell the pollsters to FOAD and move on with their lives, which is what I do.

So do I. Then again, after what Jessica Hughes went through, I may just hang up from now on.
Plus they always seem to call just after I get home from work, so I'm never in the mood to talk to them. Perhaps if I didn't have a job and sat around all day ... (except on protest days, of course).

In any case, I expect Obama to get his ass handed to him next month.

Amen.

[Dub_James]

I'm finding it difficult to understand how Obama can actually win.

Whatever about his charisma as opposed to Kerry, Kerry had only one real major scandal (Swiftboat) and still managed to lose to a President the Left despised (still despises) deeply, and who was seeking another 4 years in office.

However hard Obama has tried, he hasn't been able to successfully paint McCain as the New Bush, plus he's got a string of scandals tied to him like a ball and chain.

At no time during the Kerry/Bush '04 campaign did we hear about a large disenfranchised block of Dems who, having failed to get their candidate on the ticket, promised to vote for the Republican.

Cheney didn't energize Republicans like Palin has. Nor did he pique the interest of one of the largest demographics on the Democratic side i.e. women.

On (my) paper, I can't see how Obama can win.

Is the Black vote really enough to save him?

[Rod]

You folks forget one thing, all the illegal votes. They're the way Obama will win and no, I'm not wearing a tinfoil hat.

[Dub_James]

You folks forget one thing, all the illegal votes. They're the way Obama will win and no, I'm not wearing a tinfoil hat.

You could be right, but it's getting far more attention than it did before, and one of the main perpetrators (ACORN) is dealing with the full glare of the media spotlight, not to mention voters who were angry that ACORN were almost included in the pork they attached to the bailout.

[arkythehun]

I actually know a good number of blacks who aren't and won't vote for Obama. To be fair, I know of a good number who would still vote for a black politician even if he had just kicked their wives and raped their dogs.

Of those, some may have supported Hillary but could just as easily support McCain.

Most of those I know are very financially conservative. Of course, I'm in one of the most conservative areas of the country and blacks I know are likely a very small minority.

[The Quiet Man]

You folks forget one thing, all the illegal votes. They're the way Obama will win and no, I'm not wearing a tinfoil hat.


You could be right, but it's getting far more attention than it did before, and one of the main perpetrators (ACORN) is dealing with the full glare of the media spotlight, not to mention voters who were angry that ACORN were almost included in the pork they attached to the bailout.

You are almost right...but not quite. The attention that ACORN is getting is miniscule compared to the attention they would be getting had this been a republican scheme, but it's not so they aren't. Most folks out there don't even really know what the whole ACORN flap is all about. And most folks refuse to believe that illegals will actually be allowed to vote. They are still under the impression that only citizens are allowed to vote. The democrats have been crying "voter fraud" for years now...ever since 2000...and it has always been disproven. Citizens remember that so now they tune it out as soon as they hear the words "voter fraud"...kind like the Boy Who Cried Wolf. More importantly though is the simple fact that now it is almost too late to catch all the fradulent voter registrations. Those votes will be counted and they will be counted for Obama, of that you can be certain. Even if it is proven that fraud occured it will come too late. The election will be over and you can damn sure bet that they will never allow a "do over". The results will be allowed to stand. Oh sure, there might be tougher registration restrictions enacted for the future (because the libs wouldn't be too happy for their tactics to be used against them!), but the damage will already be done and we will be saddled with an Obambi oresidency for the next 8 years.

Even without the suspected voter fraud I think that Obambi is going to put the smack down on McCain. I don't even think it will be close. I wish I had the same optimism as others I have read who posted on this matter. McCain has too much going against him and Obambi has the MSM carrying his water to the point that he really can't lose. I wish it wasn't so, but it is what it is. You can count on some form of new gun control within the next 2 years...and it will be bullet proof...without a sunset clause...count on it. The dems will be absolutely sure to get this done while they have a firm grasp of the congress and the white house. There will be many other awful things to come down the pike as well, but don't think for a minute that guns are not on the agenda.

[Draven]

And, the crackdown on ACORN, which is responsible for maybe 75% of organized democrat voter fraud (the NAACP is probably 2nd), means Obama will lose counted-on numbers from critical states, like Ohio.

Not just counted on, paid for.