MarkD wrote:My understanding of the escape system in the shuttle is that it was based on a prayer, the likelihood of astronauts actually escaping a failed ship was so small it wasn't worth calculating. This is a step toward finding a way to make an escape likely.
I'm not sure there is a way to survive something like the Columbia incident.
Really, the escape system in the shuttle was not designed for reentry problems so it would not have helped one bit. That said, the primary escape system was designed to be used on the ground, a series of cables with baskets that the crew could get into and then slide to bunkers in the event of a major failure on the pad. I am not all that sure it was very useful unless the problem was one that was evident early enough to give them a few minutes to GTFO.
During launch, there was no real escape and for quite a bit of the early launch, it was estimated that survival chances were zero even if the orbiter was intact. Everything after the SRBs burned out was planned for but before then (approximately 123 seconds), the likelihood of survival was nil.
There were bailout scenarios in place but they never had to be used. Challenger was destroyed in under 2 seconds from the first indication of a major problem, Columbia only lasted about 17 seconds from the time the first alarm sounded (the tire pressure warning in the landing gear), till the time they lost communication and telemetry. 5 seconds after that, hydraulic pressure was lost and the orbiter was uncontrollable. Crew escape would have been impossible in both cases, Columbia was traveling at ~Mach 18 and Challenger would have been at ~Mach 3 or 4.
I clearly remember some discussion locally in FL around the time Columbia was destroyed that said that even if they had known about the problem before descent, there was nothing they could have done. That the ISS would not have been an option and descent was the only real chance they had anyways.
“I no longer need to run as a Presidential Candidate for the Socialist Party. The Democrat Party has adopted our platform.” - Norman Thomas, a six time candidate for president for the Socialist Party, 1944