Midterm Elections 2018

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Langenator
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Re: Midterm Elections 2018

Post by Langenator » Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:32 am

Why not? It gives him a useful foil for the next 2 years.
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Jered
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Re: Midterm Elections 2018

Post by Jered » Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:57 am

It looks like the Dems are up to their usual dirty tricks in AZ and FL.
The avalanche has already started. It is too late for the pebbles to vote.

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g-man
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Re: Midterm Elections 2018

Post by g-man » Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:19 am

McSally was not the best candidate, but she's waaaaay better than Sinema. But even considering that, I cannot understand how (barring the obvious thing we're all thinking) the governor's race has a 16-point gap, and the exact same population of voters has the Senate race in a dead heat. It makes zero effing sense.
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scipioafricanus
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Re: Midterm Elections 2018

Post by scipioafricanus » Fri Nov 09, 2018 11:38 am

g-man wrote:
Fri Nov 09, 2018 6:19 am
McSally was not the best candidate, but she's waaaaay better than Sinema. But even considering that, I cannot understand how (barring the obvious thing we're all thinking) the governor's race has a 16-point gap, and the exact same population of voters has the Senate race in a dead heat. It makes zero effing sense.
Is it stupid Californians leaving their state and bring their "values" with them... forgetting the reasons they left the state in the first place?
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g-man
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Re: Midterm Elections 2018

Post by g-man » Fri Nov 09, 2018 2:51 pm

Could be, but you'd expect the governor's race to be somewhat closer if that were the case. It's not even like it could be explained by gender, since all of the Senate candidates are female. The result distribution in FL at least makes sense, and the differential between Gov and Sen passes the sniff test. Close races, both where 'found' ballots could swing the election.

I know incumbency gains the incumbent an advantage. This has been shown over time to amount to ~8%, at least if I'm reading the studies on the subject correctly. Nelson is the incumbent in FL, but Scott is the current Governor, which negates part of Nelson's advantage, since he's already an elected official with name recognition. Both Sinema and McSally are sitting congresscritters, so no advantages there. And we know Ducey is the incumbent, so we should expect a 6 to 10 point advantage if the state is close overall... but 16 points? WT actual F?
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Rod
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Re: Midterm Elections 2018

Post by Rod » Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:20 am

There's investigations ongoing in both Florida and Arizona from what I'm reading. The hijinx in Florida is amazing. A teacher found a box of ballots in a storeroom, another (or maybe the teacher) has been fired for reporting finding boxes of ballots. It's rather amazing also is that every one of the "found" ballots are Democrat voters. By the way, Dade and Broward Counties both broke state election laws by not turning in counts on time. I'm of the opinion that any ballot found after the count turn in date should be invalidated.
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Johnnyreb
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Re: Midterm Elections 2018

Post by Johnnyreb » Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:53 am

I remember Pelosi talking a lot about how she would impeach Trump if she got back the gavel. Has anyone ever told her that the House can't impeach a President?

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g-man
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Re: Midterm Elections 2018

Post by g-man » Sat Nov 10, 2018 1:56 pm

Johnnyreb wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 11:53 am
I remember Pelosi talking a lot about how she would impeach Trump if she got back the gavel. Has anyone ever told her that the House can't impeach a President?
She absolutely can.
“Article 1 Section 2 Clause 5” wrote: The House of Representatives shall choose their Speaker and other Officers; and shall have the sole Power of Impeachment.
“Article 1 Section 3 Clause 6” wrote: The Senate shall have the sole Power to try all Impeachments...
The House is the only part of congress that can impeach anyone. The problem for Speaker Pelosi (assuming she gets the job back) is that the Republican controlled Senate would hold the trial.
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randy
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Re: Midterm Elections 2018

Post by randy » Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:48 pm

What the House cannot do is remove a President from office. As g-man said, that requires a trial in the Senate. Which is why Bill Clinton was impeached and still finished out his term in office.
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MiddleAgedKen
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Re: Midterm Elections 2018

Post by MiddleAgedKen » Sat Nov 10, 2018 3:19 pm

Rod wrote:
Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:20 am
There's investigations ongoing in both Florida and Arizona from what I'm reading. The hijinx in Florida is amazing. A teacher found a box of ballots in a storeroom, another (or maybe the teacher) has been fired for reporting finding boxes of ballots. It's rather amazing also is that every one of the "found" ballots are Democrat voters. By the way, Dade and Broward Counties both broke state election laws by not turning in counts on time. I'm of the opinion that any ballot found after the count turn in date should be invalidated.
They're apparently trying it in Georgia, too.

We make a lot of justifiable fun of the Lao Donk Party, but I tell you whut, Boomhauer...whomever they've got in charge of pre-positioning Buick Ballotmasters in SEIU parking lots has logistics skills worthy of POMCUS/REFORGER.
Watergate didn't have a body count.

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