I regret to inform you that you were not selected for LTC by the promotion board...

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g-man
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I regret to inform you that you were not selected for LTC by the promotion board...

Post by g-man » Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:39 am

So I wrote out a long rant, but deleted it because someone, somewhere might find it insubordinate. The bottom line is this: I didn't have all of ILE complete because of repeatedly prioritizing family over checking squares the Army thinks are important. I made those choices and do not regret them.

That said, because I have an extra year on my Army year-group peers (made Capt in 4 yrs in the AF, then switched to the Army where guys had made it in 3, so I lined up based on last promotion vice commissioning date), I will be at the 18 year point when the above-the-zone results come out next year, and will be in sanctuary status. Therefore, I will be able to retire as a MAJ at 20.

I don't plan on going ROAD, but sure as hell ain't doing the check the box kabuki dance anymore. Gonna keep rowing the oar and trying to help Joe, evals be damned.
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Rumpshot
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Re: I regret to inform you that you were not selected for LTC by the promotion board...

Post by Rumpshot » Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:56 pm

I kinda got into the same situation in the Navy. I picked up Chief early, I had checks in all the boxes. But having been tainted with the PATCO strike and retaining the hat when I returned to active duty, I never made Senior Chief. I pretty obviously had the quals they were looking for, as they wanted me to go back to another carrier. That would have made three carriers for me. Most folks in my rate might make it to one carrier. Oh well.

When the time rolls around, enjoy retirement.
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randy
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Re: I regret to inform you that you were not selected for LTC by the promotion board...

Post by randy » Thu Jun 07, 2018 4:38 pm

Sorry about the pass over.

My definition of a successful career was of making Major and getting my 20 in, LT Col would have been a pleasant bonus, but that's it.

However peace broke out, history ended, and the 1992 RIF board met before my first time up for Major. Ah well.

Oh for folks without a .mil background, 4 years to Captain in AF is right on track. (2 years each 2Lt and 1Lt), at least when I was in. I didn't realize the army promoted that much faster.
...even before I read MHI, my response to seeing a poster for the stars of the latest Twilight movies was "I see 2 targets and a collaborator".

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g-man
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Re: I regret to inform you that you were not selected for LTC by the promotion board...

Post by g-man » Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:17 pm

The 18mo/18mo - 2LT/1LT days are over, it's what they were doing at the time (OIF ramp-up). Honestly, if I can get any one of the medical data projects I'm working on out into the wild, I'd consider my career highly successful. As it stands, having the retirement as a fallback that'll allow us to go where we want to (vice having to chase the almighty dollar), and NOT having mortgaged family to get there is a win.

As an aside, we looked back at the early 90's RIF boards when we did the '06/'07 RIFs, and couldn't find a pattern that made any sense at all. We didn't have the data on regular vs reserve commissions, and we at least HOPED that factor would have been correlated (we thought regular commission guys got retained at a higher rate, but couldn't prove anything). But with the data we had, it appeared they may as well have been using a dartboard.
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Vonz90
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Re: I regret to inform you that you were not selected for LTC by the promotion board...

Post by Vonz90 » Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:50 pm

g-man wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:17 pm
The 18mo/18mo - 2LT/1LT days are over, it's what they were doing at the time (OIF ramp-up). Honestly, if I can get any one of the medical data projects I'm working on out into the wild, I'd consider my career highly successful. As it stands, having the retirement as a fallback that'll allow us to go where we want to (vice having to chase the almighty dollar), and NOT having mortgaged family to get there is a win.

As an aside, we looked back at the early 90's RIF boards when we did the '06/'07 RIFs, and couldn't find a pattern that made any sense at all. We didn't have the data on regular vs reserve commissions, and we at least HOPED that factor would have been correlated (we thought regular commission guys got retained at a higher rate, but couldn't prove anything). But with the data we had, it appeared they may as well have been using a dartboard.
Dartboard and timing, and luck and at least trying to manage ones career a bit (a significant fail on my part). I am a bit of a unicorn myself. I screened for a reserve command as an Navy O-4, and had a deployed command/OIC job of a maneuver unit, and screened for NWC. All of which are supposed to be much harder than getting O-5, but I have a break in service so was probably not going to make O-5 short of being a POW :roll: - At least you are getting sanctuary, I was part of the great Navy O-4 cull in 2010 to make sure we did not get to sanctuary.

All and all though, I am glad I did my time and I got more out of it than I put in. I do wish that a bit more time was put into teaching JO's how to manage their careers. By the time I knew what the hell I was doing it was really too late and I know that I am not alone in that by any stretch.

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randy
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Re: I regret to inform you that you were not selected for LTC by the promotion board...

Post by randy » Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:07 pm

g-man wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 5:17 pm
As an aside, we looked back at the early 90's RIF boards when we did the '06/'07 RIFs, and couldn't find a pattern that made any sense at all. We didn't have the data on regular vs reserve commissions, and we at least HOPED that factor would have been correlated (we thought regular commission guys got retained at a higher rate, but couldn't prove anything). But with the data we had, it appeared they may as well have been using a dartboard.
Don't know about the Army, but in the AF 92 RIF, no Regulars were touched, and all rated (pilots primarily) were exempt, even if they were in non-flying jobs (and of course they still got their retention bonus during this). Therefore the rest of the force had to take larger hits to meet their goals (like 50% of the Intel officer force). I had a retention endorsement from a Flag officer MAJCOM IN, but my sources tell me that when the group of packages I was in hit the board, they didn't even look at them, just dropped them into the out basket to help with making the final numbers.
Vonz90 wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:50 pm
By the time I knew what the hell I was doing it was really too late and I know that I am not alone in that by any stretch.
And even when you figured it out, they up an change everything. For 9 of my 10 years I was told that Regular was not a big deal as I would get it offered automatically when I was selected for Major. Assuming I ever met an O-4 board of course...
...even before I read MHI, my response to seeing a poster for the stars of the latest Twilight movies was "I see 2 targets and a collaborator".

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g-man
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Re: I regret to inform you that you were not selected for LTC by the promotion board...

Post by g-man » Thu Jun 07, 2018 10:55 pm

randy wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 7:07 pm
Don't know about the Army, but in the AF 92 RIF, no Regulars were touched, and all rated (pilots primarily) were exempt, even if they were in non-flying jobs (and of course they still got their retention bonus during this). Therefore the rest of the force had to take larger hits to meet their goals (like 50% of the Intel officer force). I had a retention endorsement from a Flag officer MAJCOM IN, but my sources tell me that when the group of packages I was in hit the board, they didn't even look at them, just dropped them into the out basket to help with making the final numbers.
Maybe I should have been more clear: I was the ORSA at HQAF who came up with the numbers for the 06/07 AF RIF, since I was running the retention models as a part of my regular job. We didn't have data on who had regular commissions and who didn't, and since nothing else made any sense, we had to assume there was a correlation there. Your experience backs up that hunch. It appeared they didn't really pay any attention to year groups (other than to identify eligibility for being cut), since their manning by YG afterward was all kinds of screwed up.

My career field and year group only had 3 slots left for voluntary separations (with a 2x INVOL Sep Pay bonus), and I knocked that number down by one more when I did the Blue-to-Green program.
Vonz90 wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:50 pm
By the time I knew what the hell I was doing it was really too late and I know that I am not alone in that by any stretch.
Some of my Army compatriots got this much earlier in their careers than others, and it was apparent. It's not so much just lining up all the right wickets, but having the minefield map so you don't blow yourself up in between.
Vonz90 wrote:
Thu Jun 07, 2018 6:50 pm
- At least you are getting sanctuary, I was part of the great Navy O-4 cull in 2010 to make sure we did not get to sanctuary.
The crazy part is that they're so short at LTC in my career field, that 6/6 of the guys who didn't get picked up above the zone ALL got SELCON. Of course that means bupkis for next year's board, so I'm happy I'll cross the sanctuary line in time.
Igitur qui desiderat pacem, praeparet bellum

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Mike OTDP
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Re: I regret to inform you that you were not selected for LTC by the promotion board...

Post by Mike OTDP » Fri Jun 08, 2018 1:14 am

The feast-or-famine of the military officer personnel system never made any sense. There never seems to be much long-term thinking going on.

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g-man
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Re: I regret to inform you that you were not selected for LTC by the promotion board...

Post by g-man » Fri Jun 08, 2018 2:59 am

Eisenhower couldn’t happen today. He was a MAJ for 16-someodd years. I’d gladly go that route, except that there’s no Fox/Pershing/Patton/Marshall/Arnold(s) to exec for these days.
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Re: I regret to inform you that you were not selected for LTC by the promotion board...

Post by Langenator » Sun Jun 10, 2018 1:52 pm

The 18 months to make 1LT, at least, pre-dated OIF by about 5 years, back to 1998. The Army had under-assessed and thus under commissioned new 2LTs in the wake of the early 90s RIF, and 1997-98 was when that started to play out as a shortage of CPTs They bumped the time to 1LT down to 18 months, effective in April 1998.

My YG (96) was already (mostly) past the 18 month mark, so we were promoted en masse in April 1998. Which meant we all hit 24 months of 1LT time, and hit promotion to CPT, 1 May 2000. My ICCC class had a mass promotion for about 80 of us out in front of Infantry Hall

So much of the promotion thing can be timing, too - I went to BSAP (FA 59 strategy school) in 2008 with a guy who had made LTC on his FOURTH look (plus BZ). I got binned when I didn't make it on the AZ look (and luckily, like you, I was past 18, so I got to retire. But to this day, I use the passive voice when I speak of it - I didn't retire, I was retired by the Army. I would have happily stayed on, even without getting promoted.)

But in 2006-07, the Army was screaming for field grades, partly due to the demands of OEF/OIF and other GWOT missions, and partly due to the downstream effects, 15 years later, of under-commissioning and the RIFs of the early 90s. In 2013-2014, the Army was shrinking and looking to shed officers (especially in the 3 and 4 star HQs, and Pentagon staffs where most of my specialty (59) live.)
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