Turks shoot down Russian jet

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Jericho941
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Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby Jericho941 » Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:39 am

So this is happening.

Turkish warplanes have reportedly shot down a Russian military aircraft on the border with Syria.

Russia's Interfax news agency cited the Russian defence ministry as saying that a Su-24 had crashed in northern Syria, and that its two pilots had ejected.
Turkish military officials said Turkish F-16s had shot down the plane after repeatedly warning its pilots that they were violating Turkish airspace.


Other places are reporting that one of the crew was captured and the other is currently evading.

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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby toad » Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:31 am

Oh joy: The Turks may have trouble with more than just the Russians. They are not that beloved through the Middle East and they may find Russian allies causing then grief. Let the games begin. "Say, nice port you have there, shame if it got mined."

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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby Kommander » Tue Nov 24, 2015 12:01 pm

"This business will get out of control. It will get out of control and we'll be lucky to live through it."

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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby toad » Tue Nov 24, 2015 2:32 pm

Erdogan is counting on NATP membership for protection. The problem is a lot of NATO members hate his guts. There are those in the US Military who remember him blocking troop transit into Northern Iraq during the Gulf War. His desire to restore the Ottoman Empire and become the new Kalif is quite offsetting to many Middle Eastern Countries. He's screwed the Turkish economy up already.
There are a number of Turks that dislike him enough to finger his location for hits.
He may well face modern aircraft coming at him from several direction as well as Russian Cruise missiles.
His desire to wrap himself in NATO cover may not work. There could possibly be a lot of foot dragging, co-ordination meetings, memos, and such and by the time NATO got ready to come to Erdogan's rescue, Turkey could be split between Kurdistan and Syria..

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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby Greg » Tue Nov 24, 2015 6:03 pm

He also knows the Russian military is a fairly hard, but mostly empty, shell.

This is a turf war, a longstanding one with these 2 countries, one that Turkey seems to be taking seriously thanks to Putin muscling in *big time*.

So any escalation here is partly on us, for leaving such a power vacuum that everyone and his cousin are scrambling to fill.
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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby Durham68 » Tue Nov 24, 2015 6:10 pm

I'm more concerned about the US backed rebel groups shooting at the pilots and now taking down a russian rescue helicopter. Someone tell me this isn't going to turn into a proxy war.

http://news.yahoo.com/turkmen-forces-syria-shot-dead-pilots-downed-russian-143818517.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-2 ... kish-media

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news ... wn-6891003
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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby Steamforger » Tue Nov 24, 2015 7:47 pm

Now it sounds like the FSA has forced down a SAR Hind and then followed that up with a TOW (which they got from us...)

Shit's getting real interesting in a Chinese proverb kind of way.

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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby blackeagle603 » Tue Nov 24, 2015 8:16 pm

Savages shot the pilot to pieces while under canopy.
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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby Baja boy » Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:16 pm

blackeagle603 wrote:Savages shot the pilot to pieces while under canopy.


Unfortunately it was only a matter of time--that place is a boiler ready to blow !!

That's why I continue to ask, why the hell are we there ??
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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby g-man » Tue Nov 24, 2015 9:59 pm

blackeagle603 wrote:Savages shot the pilot to pieces while under canopy.


This will not end well.
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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby Jericho941 » Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:29 pm

Well, to some degree, Dos Gringos predicted this.

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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby g-man » Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:47 pm

[Love those guys!]

Translate it to Turkish, swap Iranian for Russian, and it's about right. In another bit of coincidental comedy, Dos Gringos are Viper drivers, and it was a Turkish F-16 that kicked this off. So at least they got that part right.
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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby Greg » Tue Nov 24, 2015 10:54 pm

Durham68 wrote:I'm more concerned about the US backed rebel groups shooting at the pilots and now taking down a russian rescue helicopter. Someone tell me this isn't going to turn into a proxy war.

http://news.yahoo.com/turkmen-forces-syria-shot-dead-pilots-downed-russian-143818517.html

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-11-2 ... kish-media

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news ... wn-6891003


The whole situation is already an interlocking series of proxy wars, and has been from the start.

Which shouldn't be too disturbing, as the entire Cold War was an endless series of proxy wars. Those are old hat. You just need to take care that the primaries never engage each other directly, in an undeniable (we fought Russians directly during the Cold War, but always in a deniable way) fashion.

I find Turkey's position here extremely interesting.

ISIS is their proxy, in several different ways.

One is the obvious, as a proxy against the Kurds.
But they're also using ISIS as a proxy against the West, and as a proxy to spin up a Caliphate.

Turkey is enormously enjoying watching ISIS humiliate the ineffectual West, and in fact the current immigrant crisis has at least partly been manufactured by Turkey. (Which Western leaders are playing along with, furthering the humiliation.)

They're also watching what happens w.r.t the Caliphate. They'd like the concept to take off, but they don't want to be the ones to first float the idea - that's too risky.

Once ISIS serves its purpose at Turkey's proxy, humiliating the hapless West (decreasing the power and prestige of the West and increasing that of the Islamic world), and by merely continuing to exist establishing the idea that the Caliphate is now a real thing again, Turkey will crush them utterly and mercilessly.

ISIS has an Achilles heel- they're vulnerable to cohesive ground forces. If there's one thing Turkey has it's large quantities of semi-modern ground forces that are more than willing to give and receive casualties. Turkey may lack logistics, but they don't have to go far to get the job done.

Once ISIS is crushed, all the prestige ISIS gained by staying alive and continuing to humiliate the West will accrue to Turkey. As well, leadership of the reestablished Caliphate will pass to Turkey as well.

This grand plan falls apart if Russia gets their nose too far inside the tent.

I'm not entirely sure where the US stands in all this. So far we've played along exactly as Turkey might wish, but we've also been playing along exactly as Iran might wish and there will come a time when those two will come into direct conflict and I'm not sure our leadership has thought that far ahead.
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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby Darrell » Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:19 pm

Is it still Bush's fault?

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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby Jericho941 » Tue Nov 24, 2015 11:36 pm

g-man wrote:In another bit of coincidental comedy, Dos Gringos are Viper drivers, and it was a Turkish F-16 that kicked this off. So at least they got that part right.

Yep, that's why I was reminded of that song.

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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby randy » Wed Nov 25, 2015 2:17 am

Jericho941 wrote:Well, to some degree, Dos Gringos predicted this.


You should have seen the Polocks when they got to cross the Rhine
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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby Aesop » Wed Nov 25, 2015 7:03 am

1) Putin, being Putin, figured that everyone else would be as cowed as Obozo.
2) The Turks were in a shooting war with Russian military forces on their shared border pretty much every day from 1945-1950.
3) They are nobody's bitch
4) They have long memories
5) NATO either responds, or the alliance crumbles, the Baltics are under attack by Wednesday, and Germany, Italy, and the Swiss will be doing nuclear weapons tests by close of business next Friday. The Czech Republic and Poland by the following Monday. Now it's 1914, except it's all nuclear.
5a) faced with the prospect of global thermonuclear war, if Obozo tries to do his usual drop-our-collective-national-pants for the other team, there will be a military coup here, and his seatbelt on Marine One will have a sudden failure to lock at about 5000' over the Chesapeake on his next return to the White House, coincidentally at the same time the portside entry hatch lock fails while the bird is in a sharp left bank; and VP Biden will accidentally get run over while jogging on the grounds of the Naval Observatory. By a semi driven by Navy Seals. And a dozen follow on semis, just to be safe. Acting President Ryan will be given about 5 minutes to decide that honoring the NATO alliance is in our national interest, or risk falling off the roof of his congressional office building.
6) When you've invaded someone's territory dozens of times, and you've been told 5+ times to GTFO of their airspace, maybe you want to GTFO of their airspace
7) Parachuting amidst the people you were strafing and napalming a few minutes earlier has a very poor life expectancy for pilots (cf. North Vietnam circa 1965-1973)


Given 1-7 above, the likeliest response from our State Department, even with Lurch in charge, is liable to be a rather diplomatic version of:
Toughski shitski, comrades.
Best not fly over other people's countries without their permission. Just saying.
And hey, Vlad baby, it's not like it was
an airliner full of innocent civilians that the Turks shot down, right?
And BTW, Prime Minister Netanyahu sends the IAF's warm regards, and reminds you that Israel hasn't had a good game of Israelis vs. MiGs since 1973, so they're a little itchy to try you on for size if you should happen to lose your way down south. And the reason there aren't any Syrian Air Force jets around to speak of, is that most of them are scattered all over the Bekaa Valley since 1983. They seem to have a pretty good sense of where their borders are now, so maybe you want to invite them along in case you get lost again.
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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby toad » Wed Nov 25, 2015 8:57 am

Meanwhile, Obama states that Turkey has the right to defend its airspace....and as soon as he finishes the conference on global warming, he'll send someone to hold Erdogan's coat, probably right after the Russian missile cruiser has flushed its magazine. Of course if the cruiser reloads at sea it may take a while.
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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby Netpackrat » Thu Nov 26, 2015 1:32 am

For Thanksgiving in Russia, Turkey shoot YOU.
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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby toad » Sun Nov 29, 2015 9:27 pm

Putin is going the sanctions route on Turkey. It seems that Turkey has a number of workers in Russia, sell a bunch of stuff to Russia, and depends on transport across and through zones that are controlled by Russia. Also a Rabid Nationalist Russian is reported to have said Putin should nuke Istanbul.
Now Erdy Gurdy is trying to talk to Putin but Putin won't take his calls.
Putin is moving armed forces up to its borders with Turkey and has not only moved one of its Missile Cruiser off shore of Syria but also put some S-400 anti-aircraft missiles at a base it has in Syria.
Meanwhile Obama is still leading with his behind.

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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby skb12172 » Sun Nov 29, 2015 9:48 pm

How well could the Turks match up with Russia if NATO leaves them hanging? BTW, even in military literature, a pretty common theme is Do Not Fuck With Johnny Turk.
There must be an end to this intimidation by those who come to this great country, but reject its culture.

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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby randy » Sun Nov 29, 2015 10:36 pm

Depends on how stupid the Russians are in picking the type of campaign they wage.

Stand off and pound with cruise missiles, probably do pretty well.

Try to move in ground forces to occupy parts of Turkey, probably make Chechnya look like a cake walk.

And unless they want the Black Sea fleet to be nothing but a regional naval militia, they would need to seize and hold the land on either side of the Dardanelles. I understand there's a nice beach at a place called Gallipoli they could land at.

That also begs the question of how far they can push this without NATO deciding to play.
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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby skb12172 » Mon Nov 30, 2015 1:45 am

In this day and age, I don't think NATO is going to risk WWIII to bail out an Islamic country. Even if they are a member. I also do not think that will dissolve the alliance.
There must be an end to this intimidation by those who come to this great country, but reject its culture.

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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby Darrell » Mon Nov 30, 2015 4:17 am

There is a story going around that Turkey has closed the Dardanelles and Bosporus to Russian vessels, including their navy in the Black Sea and Mediterranean. This could go south badly.
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Re: Turks shoot down Russian jet

Postby slowpoke » Tue Dec 01, 2015 7:13 am

Darrell wrote:There is a story going around that Turkey has closed the Dardanelles and Bosporus to Russian vessels, including their navy in the Black Sea and Mediterranean. This could go south badly.

Other rumour is Erdogans son is the liason to ISIS, the Russians have been pushing that one at least. If they get ahold of him expect him confessing on TV to Assad before being dissapeared and pieces slowly sent back to Turkey.
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