Flattening the Curve: Overrated?

[Vonz90]

I'm sure if I wanted to spend a bunch of time digging through the stats collected by Johns Hopkins, CDC, or some such entity, I could probably find this, but I'd be really interested in seeing an breakdown of the hospitalization and death rates, not only by age and sex, but things like smokers (to include habitual weed and other drug smokers), race/national origin, homelessness, air quality index where they live and work, etc.

There was a very interesting question asked by Sarah Hoyt, why aren't the homeless dying in droves? Other than living outside (a risk reducer), they tend to live in crappy conditions, have limited access to medical care, and tend to have some level of immunocomprise and probably other medical complications. Oh, and they tend to live in urban areas. So why aren't we hearing about them dying by the hundreds and thousands? (Ms. Hoyt actually wrote an article, but it's paywalled.)

NYC has the most cases by sheer number, but apparently New Orleans has the highest per capita rate of infection (the fact that it's a festering cesspool, located in the middle of a swamp, has always made public health there an extra level of fun.)

I have not seen the source, but my son tells me that regular pneumonia deaths have gone to near an all time low. Odd coincidence.

[Weetabix]

I have a data question if anyone knows a source. I've lost track of how long this thing has been going on, but the JHU site tracks back to sometime in January.

As I type, they show 1,447,466 confirmed cases, 83,568 dead, 308,215 recovered. It looks like the curve is getting linear, so maybe it will plateau soon.

NPR posted about Rand Paul's recovery in Does Not Follow. The question occurred to me: does anyone have a link to a graph that shows cases, deaths, and recovered numbers over time on one graph? I imagine if we saw recoveries on the graph with confirmed tests over time, we'd see the recoveries looking better than early on since the testing has gotten more widespread.

[Termite]

ALBANY, N.Y. – The majority of New York’s more than 4,700 deaths due to coronavirus were among men, and 86% of all deaths were among people who had underlying illnesses, such as hypertension and diabetes, new state data shows.

The statistics released late Monday offered the latest glimpse into how the rapidly spreading virus has impacted New York and made it the epicenter for COVID-19 in the nation.

Of the 4,758 deaths in New York since the first on March 14, 61% were men and 39% were women, the state Department of Health reportedon its new data portal.

In addition, 63% of the deaths were among those age 70 and older, while 7% of the cases were those 49 and younger.

And 4,089 of those who died had at least one other chronic disease, the records showed:

The leading underlying illness was hypertension, which showed up in 55% of the deaths.
Next was diabetes, which was diagnosed in 1,755 deaths, or about 37% of the cases.
Other top illnesses found in those who died from coronavirus were hyperlipidemia; coronary artery disease; renal disease and dementia.

LINK


I'm starting to agree with Tucker Carlson: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZCyqcoC747o

[Termite]

Here's an idea.

Isolate all retired people (65+, and the vast majority of potentially fatal cases). Isolate age 50+ with co-morbidities. Let young and healthy people work, and accept the small amount of fatalities in that group.

That's from a guy posting over at AAesop's blog.

The double A's are because someone's programmed in a "funny". I know he isn't liked much here, but since he's gone, can we be adults?

[Netpackrat]

The person who programmed the "funny" no longer has access to undo it.

[Weetabix]

Good link to Tucker Carlson. At this point, after hearing about how they report some of the numbers, I'm not sure I believe any of them any more.

I keep hearing, "We've never seen anything like this before." It may be more accurate to say, "We've never noticed anything in quite this way before and had fear of it pushed on us this way before."

Testing: Aesop (I couldn't remember what the "funny" was.)

[scipioafricanus]

Good link to Tucker Carlson. At this point, after hearing about how they report some of the numbers, I'm not sure I believe any of them any more.

I keep hearing, "We've never seen anything like this before." It may be more accurate to say, "We've never noticed anything in quite this way before and had fear of it pushed on us this way before."

Testing: Ass-op (I couldn't remember what the "funny" was.)

Remember, China has been saying the don't have any more cases...

[blackeagle603]

‘Going outdoors is what stops every respiratory disease’

A veteran scholar of epidemiology has warned that the ongoing lockdowns throughout the United States and the rest of the world are almost certainly just prolonging the coronavirus outbreak rather than doing anything to truly mitigate it.

RTWT

[randy]

The person who programmed the "funny" no longer has access to undo it.

I can take a look at turning that off if we have agreement that it's time has passed.

[blackeagle603]

The more I look at it, the less I know. The input numbers are all hosed up. Deaths being coded as C-19 that have no real bearing on the actual C-19 problem.

CDC guidelines might as well say "Just code every death from here on out as C-19 if there's any respiratory thing going. Relevant or not to cause of death. Confirmed diagnosis or not."

Elsewhere, in breaking headline news: "Skydiver who forgot his parachute dies of Covid-19"