SWIFT

[D5CAV]

I don't expect much out of Uncle Joe. He is a sock puppet who hasn't been responsible for what comes out of his mouth for about 6 years now. However, I expect a little more intelligence from his handlers.

Even some people I read have gone off the rails on SWIFT: https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2022-03-08/only-once

If you wire money from your bank to a bank in Belgium, you will need the SWIFT codes for the banks. If you are wiring $10,000 and the bank in Belgium doesn't have a SWIFT code, your bank will tell you "no bueno". If you are wiring $10,000,000, your banker will give you a call, and invite you for lunch. Over lunch, he will apologize, tell you the transaction will be a little difficult and will cost you some more in transfer fees (about 100x what the banker paid for your lunch with that nice bottle of Bordeaux).

Let's be clear on this. SWIFT is a messaging system, like Facebook or Twitter. If you get "de-platformed", you have to (horrors!), actually pick up the phone and talk to someone.

I happen to remember doing fund transfers back in the 1990s to some places where the banks weren't on SWIFT. We had to use phones and fax machines. A little quaint, but not impossible, and certainly not "the nuclear option".

You notice that Vlad has stated that a no-fly zone over Ukraine is an act of war, but no comment on SWIFT. That's because he knows it doesn't matter.

What so many of the high IQ idiots on Wall Street don't understand is that wealth is not numbers on a bank account, it is stuff.

You want green new deal? You need nickel for those batteries. Who is the largest producer of nickel? Oh yeah, that would be Russia.

You want to stop burning coal in Western Europe power plants? You need natural gas. Oh yeah, that's also from Russia.

You like bread? The number 1 world exporter of wheat just invaded the number 5 world exporter of wheat. Maybe it's a good time to start that low-carb diet.

Russian banks off the SWIFT system? Hey, where's that fax machine? Do you remember the phone number for that banker in Moscow?

Idiots!

[Vonz90]

One of the few good things that Trump did was engineer kicking Iran out of SWIFT. It caused losses of around $100B a year and probably would have broken the regime if Biden had not canned it when he came into office.

Can any one person/entity transfer money still? Of course, but it makes it slow and difficult and makes the routine day by day transactions impossible and thus drives economic activity into the dirt.

Biden's SWIFT sections will not do that because they are on specific entities rather than the whole economy.

[D5CAV]

One of the few good things that Trump did was engineer kicking Iran out of SWIFT. It caused losses of around $100B a year and probably would have broken the regime if Biden had not canned it when he came into office.

Can any one person/entity transfer money still? Of course, but it makes it slow and difficult and makes the routine day by day transactions impossible and thus drives economic activity into the dirt.

Biden's SWIFT sections will not do that because they are on specific entities rather than the whole economy.

No offense, but you are enthralled by "The Great and Powerful Oz" and don't notice the man behind the curtain.

SWIFT doesn't matter.

What matters is behind the scenes, some realpolitik was played in back-rooms, where deals were cut to supply oil from other sources, whether Bakken Oil sands (promoted by Trump and shut down by Biden) or Saudi Arabia (friended by Trump, shunned by Biden).

China didn't stop buying oil from Iran because of SWIFT. China has its own "messaging platform" and Iran is happy to receive RMB. China stopped buying oil from Iran because Trump made a deal. China got cheaper oil from Saudi and US (carrot), and were threatened with more tariffs on stuff going to Wal-Mart (stick).

Biden is in thrall to the "woke" agenda who pushed ESG investing (the guys who run your 401K portfolio who made sure not to invest in any "environmentally unfriendly" oil stocks, so you missed out on those gains), who pushed to "unfriend" Saudi Arabia because one of their "woke" WaPo reporters got whacked, and who pushed to revoke leases for fracking.

Now US is no longer an oil exporter. China needs oil. Can you guess where China is buying it?

[Vonz90]

One of the few good things that Trump did was engineer kicking Iran out of SWIFT. It caused losses of around $100B a year and probably would have broken the regime if Biden had not canned it when he came into office.

Can any one person/entity transfer money still? Of course, but it makes it slow and difficult and makes the routine day by day transactions impossible and thus drives economic activity into the dirt.

Biden's SWIFT sections will not do that because they are on specific entities rather than the whole economy.

No offense, but you are enthralled by "The Great and Powerful Oz" and don't notice the man behind the curtain.

SWIFT doesn't matter.

What matters is behind the scenes, some realpolitik was played in back-rooms, where deals were cut to supply oil from other sources, whether Bakken Oil sands (promoted by Trump and shut down by Biden) or Saudi Arabia (friended by Trump, shunned by Biden).

China didn't stop buying oil from Iran because of SWIFT. China has its own "messaging platform" and Iran is happy to receive RMB. China stopped buying oil from Iran because Trump made a deal. China got cheaper oil from Saudi and US (carrot), and were threatened with more tariffs on stuff going to Wal-Mart (stick).

Biden is in thrall to the "woke" agenda who pushed ESG investing (the guys who run your 401K portfolio who made sure not to invest in any "environmentally unfriendly" oil stocks, so you missed out on those gains), who pushed to "unfriend" Saudi Arabia because one of their "woke" WaPo reporters got whacked, and who pushed to revoke leases for fracking.

Now US is no longer an oil exporter. China needs oil. Can you guess where China is buying it?

No offense, but you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about, relative to me or much of this other related subjects.

Iran's economy declined by about half in 3 years. This is a fact. Had Biden not won and thrown them a lifeline, they would have been in the crapper by now. Sure China was still buying oil, but that was a fraction of what Iran's total export was before. And China was getting it at a discount.

If SWIFT is not available, one can still work around it, but it is expensive and takes time and only works for some things. That is why it is important. If routine economic activity cannot work routinely, a price is paid. I doubt you have ever dealt with that though so how would you know.

[Vonz90]

Note the inflection point in 2018 when the SWIFT and other sanctions were imposed.

106856469-1616392734499-Iran_trade.png

As I stated earlier the Russian sanctions will NOT have the same impact because they are not across the board and that is whatmade them work with Iran; and frankly neither Biden nor many of the Europeans want them to.

The point you are missing, I think, is that I am not saying these sanctions will have more than a moderate impact. They COULD if done seamlessly, but that is not what they want to do. You are attacking the idea, I am attacking the execution (at least relative to the stated goals, which are not the actual goals).

[D5CAV]

No offense, but you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about, relative to me or much of this other related subjects.

This may be true

You and your little dog enjoy your trip down the yellow brick road

... and be sure to obey the "Great and powerful Biden" or whoever is in charge today.

[Vonz90]

No offense, but you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about, relative to me or much of this other related subjects.

This may be true

You and your little dog enjoy your trip down the yellow brick road

... and be sure to obey the "Great and powerful Biden" or whoever is in charge today.

Um dude, if you think I consider Biden anything other than a useless piece of shit, you are are delusional - which would explain a lot of your posts.

The point I was making was about the tool of a SWIFT embargo, which can have powerful impact. At the same time I said that the way the Biden administration (and EU) are using it will NOT work.

If you did not get that, then go back and read them again. If you still don't, then your comprehension is not up to snuff.

[D5CAV]

Um dude, if you think I consider Biden anything other than a useless piece of shit, you are are delusional - which would explain a lot of your posts.

The point I was making was about the tool of a SWIFT embargo, which can have powerful impact. At the same time I said that the way the Biden administration (and EU) are using it will NOT work.

If you did not get that, then go back and read them again. If you still don't, then your comprehension is not up to snuff.

How can I argue against such an eloquent summary of facts and logical arguments?

You win!

[Vonz90]

Um dude, if you think I consider Biden anything other than a useless piece of shit, you are are delusional - which would explain a lot of your posts.

The point I was making was about the tool of a SWIFT embargo, which can have powerful impact. At the same time I said that the way the Biden administration (and EU) are using it will NOT work.

If you did not get that, then go back and read them again. If you still don't, then your comprehension is not up to snuff.

How can I argue against such an eloquent summary of facts and logical arguments?

You win!

indeed. If someone is taking an anti-Biden argument as a pro-Bidn argument (that is you), there just isn't room for further discussion.

Let's summarize:

You - SWIFT embargo is not an effective tool

Me - it was effective when Trump used it against Iran, but will not work this time because Biden is not using it correctly.

You - well you are just a Biden fan boy.

Me - ???? WTF?

[BDK]

If Russia keeps selling nickel, Pt and oil, they’ll find a way around the dollar and SWIFT - frankly, SWIFT has been a target for replacement, anyway, hasn’t it?

I think Russia being cut off from all the world’s consumer goods, it what Putin wants.

He is nostalgic for the f-d up, bizarre anti-world which was Soviet design.

Admittedly, I knew only Anti-Communists and Aristocrats from the Soviet era.

The Anti-Communists are great people. The aristos had that whiff of brutality most Aristos either have, or consciously divest themselves of.

Modern, wealthy, Russians live like Aristos once did. Rampant defiance of every social convention, to prove how “above” society they are: bastards sired and abandoned everywhere, heavy drug use, etc.

Party members didn’t do such things. They wouldn’t acknowledge the existence of a maid - they were still Aristos - but they had some sense of belonging to society.

As our Left has rapidly gone from Democrat to Socialist to Communist to now, something totally divested from reality, I think it fuels the concern of what Russians could degrade into.

The Soviets I knew…. Well, hell they were all pretty awesome. Even the Aristos were running something of a risk.

But, I didn’t meet any punks. Now, 90+% of young Russian men I’ve met are worthless punks.

They all seem to have this young “Bravo” thing going on, but it’s all posture. They pretend to be boxers, etc, but they’ve never been hit.