Time to panic?

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Vonz90
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Time to panic?

Post by Vonz90 » Tue Mar 06, 2018 10:03 pm


Greg
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Re: Time to panic?

Post by Greg » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:42 am

The answer is one I don't really like, but is nevertheless obvious.

Those people didn't so much vote Republican, as vote Trump. And the Republican establishment that continues to fight to undermine Trump at every turn (including the NeverTrumpers we talked about) are doing an excellent job of chasing away new voters that Trump brought in.

Good work.
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Vonz90
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Re: Time to panic?

Post by Vonz90 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:26 pm

Greg wrote:The answer is one I don't really like, but is nevertheless obvious.

Those people didn't so much vote Republican, as vote Trump. And the Republican establishment that continues to fight to undermine Trump at every turn (including the NeverTrumpers we talked about) are doing an excellent job of chasing away new voters that Trump brought in.

Good work.
I do not think it has much to do with the NeverTrumpers, at least in any significant way. Rather, I think it is much closer to the Obama dynamic. He is a leader much more concerned with his himself than building a party, that works in terms of personal popularity but that popularity comes at the cost of most of the rest of party. Obama brought a lot of "new" people to the polls for the Dems, more than were alienated by him. They did not show up when he was not on the ballet. This is expanded of course because we have a very hostile press (not helped by POTUS seemingly obsessed with stepping on his own d*ck in as public a way as possible as often as possible).

Trump got about the same total votes as Romney (+/-), he was not very popular in the first place net/net. He just happened to be running against a candidate who was genetically engineered to be the worst possible one in history.

There is time, and the tax cuts (hooray GOP congress!) and such may mitigate things, but I am worried. I think Trump with a Dem congress is a very different animal than Trump with a GOP congress.
Last edited by Vonz90 on Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:16 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Rod
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Re: Time to panic?

Post by Rod » Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:10 pm

A reminder, this is primary season. Give it a month THEN maybe starting to talk panic. I'm sitting in Texas where, Beto O'Rourke, the pot smoking, drunk driving Democrat (neither of which is surprising) outspent Cruz in the primaries. Cruz didn't even mention the asshole in his campaign ads. People are all atwitter, including Limbaugh about Texas going at least purple, if not blue. Before the votes were even counted, Cruz went on the attack and blasted Beto for his stance on immigration. Beto doesn't have an endless war chest while Cruz hasn't spent that much money yet. This is pretty much what's happening across the country.
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Weetabix
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Re: Time to panic?

Post by Weetabix » Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:50 pm

Rod wrote:A reminder, this is primary season. Give it a month THEN maybe starting to talk panic.
I'm with Rod. I never had great faith in polls, and even that tenuous faith has eroded mightily of late.
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Vonz90
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Re: Time to panic?

Post by Vonz90 » Wed Mar 07, 2018 3:56 pm

Weetabix wrote:
Rod wrote:A reminder, this is primary season. Give it a month THEN maybe starting to talk panic.
I'm with Rod. I never had great faith in polls, and even that tenuous faith has eroded mightily of late.
The polls are one thing, the results in special elections have been abysmal, even in very solid GOP districts.
Last edited by Vonz90 on Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:17 am, edited 1 time in total.

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g-man
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Re: Time to panic?

Post by g-man » Wed Mar 07, 2018 4:15 pm

Rod wrote:A reminder, this is primary season. Give it a month THEN maybe starting to talk panic. I'm sitting in Texas where, Beto O'Rourke, the pot smoking, drunk driving Democrat (neither of which is surprising) outspent Cruz in the primaries. Cruz didn't even mention the asshole in his campaign ads. People are all atwitter, including Limbaugh about Texas going at least purple, if not blue. Before the votes were even counted, Cruz went on the attack and blasted Beto for his stance on immigration. Beto doesn't have an endless war chest while Cruz hasn't spent that much money yet. This is pretty much what's happening across the country.
Looking at the results in TX, I noticed a trend: In most of the districts, more people voted (by a factor of 2-10 depending on district) for the GOP primary winner than voted for all (D) candidates combined. I'm not worried about TX going purple.
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Langenator
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Re: Time to panic?

Post by Langenator » Thu Mar 08, 2018 2:30 am

g-man wrote:
Rod wrote:A reminder, this is primary season. Give it a month THEN maybe starting to talk panic. I'm sitting in Texas where, Beto O'Rourke, the pot smoking, drunk driving Democrat (neither of which is surprising) outspent Cruz in the primaries. Cruz didn't even mention the asshole in his campaign ads. People are all atwitter, including Limbaugh about Texas going at least purple, if not blue. Before the votes were even counted, Cruz went on the attack and blasted Beto for his stance on immigration. Beto doesn't have an endless war chest while Cruz hasn't spent that much money yet. This is pretty much what's happening across the country.
Looking at the results in TX, I noticed a trend: In most of the districts, more people voted (by a factor of 2-10 depending on district) for the GOP primary winner than voted for all (D) candidates combined. I'm not worried about TX going purple.
This was the case with Ted Cruz, and he was running unopposed.

And folks, not to be a grammar nazi, but the correct spelling is 'polls.' Poles hold up tents, or get danced upon by young women with daddy issues.
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John_in_Longview
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Re: Time to panic?

Post by John_in_Longview » Thu Mar 08, 2018 3:55 am

Langenator wrote: This was the case with Ted Cruz, and he was running unopposed.
Actually, there were four people running against him in the Republican primary. Here are the results:

Cruz 1,317,450(85.3%)
Miller 94,451(6.1%)
Jacobson Jr 64,604(4.2%)
De Stefano 44,327(2.9%)
Sam 22,842(1.5%)

Greg
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Re: Time to panic?

Post by Greg » Thu Mar 08, 2018 1:44 pm

Just to add.....

You all here are aware of how the Republican establishment shits on its own base. We gripe about it all the time, but we're used to it and anyway, where are we going to go.

Now imagine you were a tentative new R voter, and you notice the R establishment seems to like to shit on its own voters. You. WTF do you need this for, you can get that at home? (At least over there they sweeten the deal with other people's money. Oh fuck a duck, I just figured out 'Compassionate Conservatism'.)
Maybe we're just jaded, but your villainy is not particularly impressive. -Ennesby

If you know what you're doing, you're not learning anything. -Unknown
Sanity is the process by which you continually adjust your beliefs so they are predictively sound. -esr

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