How I See Election 2016 Shaking Out

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Durham68
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Re: How I See Election 2016 Shaking Out

Post by Durham68 »

Vonz90 wrote:
Durham68 wrote:I think the best way to keep Trump from winning is for everyone to stay in the race. Deny him as many delegates as possible and force a brokered convention. There is not enough ideological overlap between the non-Trump candidates to safely assume Trump won't get a healthy percentage of their voters if any of them drop out. If super tuesday is any indication, Kasich can keep peeling off delegates in blue states, Rubio in purple states and Cruz in red states. Have to check the delegate math for the remaining primaries to make sure it is possible based on who is polling well in winner take all vs proportional states.
Problem is that many of the states after March 14 are winner take all, so if he wins 30% to 28% to 28%, he gets all of the delegates.
It's actually not that many, but [strike]two[/strike] several of them happen to be states that have a lot of delegates where Trump is polling well (FL, OH, NY).

http://frontloading.blogspot.com/p/2016 ... on-by.html
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John_in_Longview
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Re: How I See Election 2016 Shaking Out

Post by John_in_Longview »

Vonz90 wrote: Problem is that many of the states after March 14 are winner take all, so if he wins 30% to 28% to 28%, he gets all of the delegates.
Do we know how many of these states have close primaries? Instapundit linked to an article pointing out that Cruz does better in states with closed primaries and Trump does better in states with open primaries. (Texas has open primaries, but we're Cruz's home state, so I wouldn't use Texas as a data point in that analysis.)
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Durham68
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Re: How I See Election 2016 Shaking Out

Post by Durham68 »

John_in_Longview wrote:
Vonz90 wrote: Problem is that many of the states after March 14 are winner take all, so if he wins 30% to 28% to 28%, he gets all of the delegates.
Do we know how many of these states have close primaries? Instapundit linked to an article pointing out that Cruz does better in states with closed primaries and Trump does better in states with open primaries. (Texas has open primaries, but we're Cruz's home state, so I wouldn't use Texas as a data point in that analysis.)
Best summary table I can find:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... count.html

Open, winner-take-all primaries include, IL, MO, OH, WI, IN, MT, NJ.
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PawPaw
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Re: How I See Election 2016 Shaking Out

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Vonz90 wrote: That is funny, because if Trump is the nominee I am voting third party. He is a left wing idiot nose bleed of a person, how can you possibly want him to be the conservative standard bearer.
The last conservative standard bearer was Reagan. Neither of the Bush's were. Both of them were good, solid presidents, but I certainly wouldn't count them as "conservative standard-bearers". Who was the standard-bearer before Reagan? Eisenhower?

So, if Trump is the nominee, you'll vote third party and help elect Clinton? (Actually, I believe Sanders will be the nominee for reasons that will become apparent later in the spring, but I digress). Either way, a Sanders or Clinton presidency will be a continuing disaster and an extension of the Obama years. The #NeverTrump guys have lost their minds.

Oh, and Trump never claimed (that I'm aware of) to be a conservative. Just a Republican.
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Netpackrat
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Re: How I See Election 2016 Shaking Out

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Honestly, at this point Cruz needs winner take all primaries... He just needs to manage to take them away from Trump.
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John_in_Longview
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Re: How I See Election 2016 Shaking Out

Post by John_in_Longview »

Durham68 wrote: Best summary table I can find:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... count.html
Open, winner-take-all primaries include, IL, MO, OH, WI, IN, MT, NJ.
Thanks!
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PawPaw
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Re: How I See Election 2016 Shaking Out

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Aesop
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Re: How I See Election 2016 Shaking Out

Post by Aesop »

PawPaw wrote:Who was the standard-bearer before Reagan? Eisenhower?
You must be joking. Eisenhower, like Trump, became a Republican about 5 minutes before the race. He would have been equally comfortable (and ineffective) as a Democrat, he was just waiting to see whether Truman would hang around for his third term.
The last conservative before Reagan was Coolidge.
So, if Trump is the nominee, you'll vote third party and help elect Clinton? (Actually, I believe Sanders will be the nominee for reasons that will become apparent later in the spring, but I digress). Either way, a Sanders or Clinton presidency will be a continuing disaster and an extension of the Obama years. The #NeverTrump guys have lost their minds.
Don't be ridiculous. If Trump is the nominee, I'm voting for Shrillary. Unless/until she gets indicted or suffers sudden "health concerns". In which case it's Sanders all the way.
I'd rather have an honest communist than a faux-Republican.
Oh, and Trump never claimed (that I'm aware of) to be a conservative. Just a Republican.
He is neither. Unless somebody wants to argue that Michael Bloombozo is a Republican too. They are two cuts from the same cloth.
Trump is an opportunistic chameleon, and the one thing you can count on is that anything he says is demonstrably false.

And given the behavior of the quislings in Congress, I doubt the few conservative members will bother to wage an effective guerrilla campaign to stop his nonsense and backstabbing if he's elected.
With Shrillary or Bernie in the Oval Office, there's some slight shred of chance that in order to gain re-election, they might, from time to time, sandbag their efforts.
Which will do until we can get Ryan and McConjob tossed out in the next round of primaries, and try again for some better leadership.
6-2-even the Republicans lose both houses in two years anyways, unless they start doing what they were sent to DC to accomplish.
At this point, an Iranian or Nork nuke in the vicinity of the Capitol during the next State of the Union could be the greatest blessing to befall the nation in 100 years.

Besides, when the economy goes into a shambles, I want Clinton's or Bernie's sticky fingerprints all over it, and HopeyDopey's too, rather than any wildass possibility that it gets blamed on even a nominal (R) like Trump.
And between Trump, Sanders, and Clinton, whoever gets this election victory, they're going to be a one-term president, barring a miracle.
And I see no miracles anywhere from here to the horizon.
Last edited by Aesop on Wed Mar 02, 2016 7:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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g-man
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Re: How I See Election 2016 Shaking Out

Post by g-man »

An interesting take on getting to a brokered convention:

http://redalertpolitics.com/2016/03/02/ ... rump-wins/

tl;dr - Rubio and Kasich need to win their home states to keep Trump from getting those delegates. If they drop out, he could secure >50% before the convention. Carson, on the other hand, needs to hang it up.
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Aesop
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Re: How I See Election 2016 Shaking Out

Post by Aesop »

Yeah.
And when last I looked, neither Kasich nor Rubio were leading in their home states.
And yet here they are, still. :roll:

Carson is just a poltically tonedeaf jackass.
"There are four types of homicide: felonious, accidental, justifiable, and praiseworthy." -Ambrose Bierce, "The Devil's Dictionary"
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