Cruz strategy

[Vonz90]

He is approach this as a base election.

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/4 ... se-turnout

[Cobar]

I mentioned turnout deciding elections in that movie thread.

Someone else seeing what I see, especially numbers people, makes me think I might be on the right track.

It certainly explains Obama wining 2 elections also. The Republicans spent both elections trying to appeal to the left. While Obama lost a lot of his base the second time around the Republicans lost more.

[Aesop]

You can't win the primaries without the base.
You can't win the general election with only the base.
- Richard M. Nixon

Let's hope Team Cruz' approach works.

Everything I've heard has the polls that supposedly say Trump is slightly ahead of Cruz in Iowa &c. being based, not on the data, but on poll punditry extrapolating the data and assuming a turnout for Trump that is 150% of the total turnout in any election in Iowa or primary history.
Which leads me to believe that those polls are based 90% on the media needing their media gravy train of whackjobbery from Trump to continue, and only about 10% on likely voting behavior.
The other notable thing is that voters in Iowa, NH, etc., historically tend to not finally make up their minds until about the day before the election.

Trump is going to show high, but if he loses Iowa and SC, it's going to be a different ballgame in 2 weeks.
And Rubio (along with Dubbya 2.0, Christie, and Kasich in NH) represents entirely the desperate last gasp of the machine pol Republican establishment, trying in vain to grab the reins on this bitch before Trump and Cruz run away with "their" birthright party.
Like I needed another 500 reasons to never, ever vote for Marco Amnesty.

Some of the f*cktard Trumpista anarchists et al have even incorrectly labeled NR's Trump: No Way In Hell issue as the machine trying to protect itself, when the people in question don't particularly love the Bonehead/McConjob/Ryan machine either.

Lastly, someone needs to cast Sarah Palin in a real-life sequel to The Revenant II, and feed her ignorant jackassical ass to a grizzly bear.
Her utility to either conservatism, the Tea Party, or political debate in general is far past her Warhol-appointed 15 minutes. She is now the spiritual heir to Arianna Huffington, and I would greatly appreciate her getting hit by a bus - really, actually, and terminally - for the greater good of humanity. I would even be willing to drive the bus, at this point.

Her ridiculousness can be measured in 1:1 ratio with the media's carrying her asinine blatherings nearly entirely without comment since she endorsed Hairpiece. Anyone who could give Tina Fey's 8 year old schtick new life on SNL is a plague on humanity. Palin is proving the comments about her base intellligence level 100% accurate; yet another sideshow freak from Central Casting, the exact fodder the media needs to keep this nonsense going for as much ratings bait as possible, and to distract and delay any mention whatsoever regarding the looming and near-inevitable federal indictment of the Queen of Hearts.

-correspondents Huck Fillary and Tuck Frump contributed to this story

[Langenator]

I think the places where Trump will score the biggest are those states that allow crossover voting in the primaries - because Dems will cast votes for him for the chaos value.

Rubio, or whomever the Establishment choice is, may have an advantage in caucus states. I heard stories from my FIL about how Ron Paul supporters were muscled out of caucus sites in WA by the Romneyites in 2012. I've read that Cruz probably has the best ground game of the GOP field, so he may overcome this.

[Netpackrat]

Lastly, someone needs to cast Sarah Palin in a real-life sequel to The Revenant II, and feed her ignorant jackassical ass to a grizzly bear. Her utility to either conservatism, the Tea Party, or political debate in general is far past her Warhol-appointed 15 minutes. She is now the spiritual heir to Arianna Huffington, and I would greatly appreciate her getting hit by a bus - really, actually, and terminally - for the greater good of humanity. I would even be willing to drive the bus, at this point.

Her ridiculousness can be measured in 1:1 ratio with the media's carrying her asinine blatherings nearly entirely without comment since she endorsed Hairpiece. Anyone who could give Tina Fey's 8 year old schtick new life on SNL is a plague on humanity. Palin is proving the comments about her base intelligence level 100% accurate; yet another sideshow freak from Central Casting, the exact fodder the media needs to keep this nonsense going for as much ratings bait as possible, and to distract and delay any mention whatsoever regarding the looming and near-inevitable federal indictment of the Queen of Hearts.

So, to sum up, everything I have been trying to tell you people for the last 8 years.

[Aesop]

So, to sum up, everything I have been trying to tell you people for the last 8 years.

Hey, definitely you told us so, and you were right, but don't misunderstand me too quickly.
Palin was the only bright spot in an abysmal McCrazy candidacy. That's she's such an asstard now only underlines how desperately bad his run was.
I expected Palin to be not-ready-for-prime-time with zero prep in 2008.
Being such a monumentally fuckitted asstard 7 years later after doing nothing but bloviate in the meantime is inexcusably all her fault.
Tie a porkchop around her neck and drop her in a pack of timber wolves already, and get it over with.

Other than Reagan, I don't think there was a single governor who was elevated to national office as a promotion, rather than simply being an expedient means to get them the hell out of the state and inflicted upon the rest of the country, which is why I'm not such a big fan of the whole "governors make better presidents" fallacy. Dubbya, Clinton, Carter, both Roosevelts, and Woodrow Wilson isn't anything to write home about.

[Termite]

So, to sum up, everything I have been trying to tell you people for the last 8 years.

And me and Pawpaw are saying the same thing about Bobbie Jindal.

That's not to say that Bobbie wouldn't have a place in a GOP administration.
I suggest SEC-HUD, and send him in with a chainsaw...

[Netpackrat]

So, to sum up, everything I have been trying to tell you people for the last 8 years.

And me and Pawpaw are saying the same thing about Bobbie Jindal.

Yeah, but I think most of us listened to you. The thing about Palin is that it doesn't really matter what she actually stands for; too many people on "our" side project onto her what they want to see. How a tax and spend liberal who declared war on the oil industry (i.e. Alaska's biggest industry) became the darling of the conservative movement is something I still find baffling.

[blackeagle603]

Looking at that article I wonder, to what extent did Goldwater set the stage for Reagan?

He articulated a different, more conservative Republican view than the Ike era Republican stand. In a sense he was a sacrificial thought leader that fueled a movement in thought that took more than just a '64 campaign season to fully develop. Much like 10 years ago we were all saying "Building a nation of rifleman one shooter at a time," now we are winning the public mindshare and Social media contests, and there so many new shooters we have to stand back from the line to keep an eye on all the 4 rule violations.

[Langenator]

I've got this book on the Goldwater campaign on my shelf. I honestly have no idea how I acquired it, but I need to get around to reading it.

http://www.amazon.com/Glorious-Disaster ... s+disaster