GOP field starting to clarify

[Mike OTDP]

Looking at the situation as of today, it seems to me that the GOP Presidential field is boiling down to Trump, Carson, Rubio, and Cruz. The rest are Dead Candidates Walking, even if they do account for more than a quarter of the current polling. How do you guys think this will play out?

FWIW, I see a distinct potential for a brokered convention. As the no-hopers drop, the Final Four will have a chance to pick up votes...but I don't see them all going to one person. Rubio will pick up the Bush supporters, maybe the Christie and Kasich voters. I think Fiorina voters go to Cruz. But there's not enough to put anyone over the top. What I could see is a Trump-Carson fight that leaves both crippled...and Rubio caught in the crossfire. But it's a guess.

[JustinR]

I've seen several sources talking about Cruz working the long game and securing delegates for the convention behind the scenes. I hope he succeeds.

[First Shirt]

I'd be tickled to death with a Carson-Fiorina ticket, but mainly because it would mean Cruz would be available for the next opening on the Supreme Court.

That said, I'd be okay with Cruz-Whoever, if that's what shakes out. And least then, we'd have a president that had actually read the US Constitution, and didn't regard it as a obstacle to be overcome.

[Aesop]

People who aren't just buffing up their cred with some jackass phone pollster aren't going to be casting actual votes for Trump, nor Carson.
Their support is a mile wide and an inch deep.
Carson is already showing his inner goofus lately, and Trump has never stopped doing so.

Rubio has the everlasting enmity of hordes of actual conservatives over his Amnesty stance, and he's never getting them back.
We've also tried three "younger" presidents in a row lately, and middle America is likely going to come down wanting some adult supervision for a change.

And then there's the fact that Cruz is whipsmart, an actual conservative, and demonstrably not an a-hole.

So Cruz.
And somebody who's already not a contender to balance the ticket.
Walker, Kasich, and Santorum all pass that test (for that matter, so does Trump): they're from northern states that would be ripe for knocking off some blue state electoral votes, and forcing the Dems to spend piles of money in states they think they have in their pocket.

And if the ones who don't make the ticket rally around the nominees in their home states, we take this bitch.

The only wrench in the gears is underestimating the R party apparatchiks' ability to fuck this election sideways with a rusty chainsaw, purely from muscle memory.
(Think of 5-star jackhole and nearly-House Speaker Kevin McCarthy shooting both feet while they were in his mouth about the "real" purpose behind the Benghazi committee investigation, or Romney rolling over for Hopey Dopey after the first debate, or McCrazy saying Hopey Dopey would make a pretty good president 6 weeks from election day, or Bitch McConnell on absolutely anything, any day of the last 5 years, and you have the poster children for the retarded GOP administration/leadership nationwide. And a pretty good starting line-up for the Special Olympics 440m relay, take your pick.)

[PawPaw]

Like basketball, which I refuse to bet on, we'll soon be down to the Final Four, then it will be Win Or Go Home till we get to the convention.

I'd be perfectly happy with Fiorina on a ticket. I like Carly.