Biden Bows Out: $#!^ getting real for Election 2016

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Aesop
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Biden Bows Out: $#!^ getting real for Election 2016

Post by Aesop »

Gaffe-A-Matic announced today he's out.

By the numbers:
1) Both parties are left with unelectable jackasses as their current front-runners, despised by the majority of each party:
Trump for Repubs, and Sanders for the Dems.
2) Any hope of Biden weakening Shrillary enough to knock her off the block, and let The Anointed One help select the (D) nominee at a brokered election are now abysmally dim.
3) Hopey Dopey is thus left with either backing the person he despises, despite her obvious criminal conduct, and praying they can brazen it out and get her into his chair next, or letting the leash slip on the FBI once and for all, seeing her and the Dumocrat Party brand go down in flames for the next 4-8 years.
4) The Benghazi hearings and the ensuing likelihood of either a Special Prosecutor, vs. stonewalling, followed by torches, pitchforks, and a tumbrel cart on the front lawn of the White House, just got a whole lot more interesting.
5) Sanders doubling down on Shrillary's criminal conduct in Dem Debate I, and attempting to give her a pass on everything by royal fiat has essentially put him and the entire party all-in on her criminal shenanigans from here on out.

Shrillary getting indicted or not is now the litmus test for whether we have any bare shred of a republic left to us, or have permanently transitioned to just the banana version of one.

Smart money: Go deep on beans, band-aids, and bullets.
And if you were wondering when the next round of ammo- and gun-buying madness would start, I think I just heard the opening whistle on that.
Last edited by Aesop on Thu Oct 22, 2015 7:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
"There are four types of homicide: felonious, accidental, justifiable, and praiseworthy." -Ambrose Bierce, "The Devil's Dictionary"
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skb12172
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Re: Biden Bows Out: $#!^ getting real for Election 2016

Post by skb12172 »

Let me help you with this. It's Banana.
There must be an end to this intimidation by those who come to this great country, but reject its culture.
Aesop
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Re: Biden Bows Out: $#!^ getting real for Election 2016

Post by Aesop »

I'm leaning towards glass half-full.
Congress 2010ff. and SCOTUS give me hope.
Until they revert to type, and don't.

It's really all hanging on a razor's edge, and the alternative to a constitutional republic is quite terrible to contemplate.
Like it's April 1861 all over again.
"There are four types of homicide: felonious, accidental, justifiable, and praiseworthy." -Ambrose Bierce, "The Devil's Dictionary"
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PawPaw
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Re: Biden Bows Out: $#!^ getting real for Election 2016

Post by PawPaw »

Aesop wrote:and SCOTUS give me hope
If that's your hope, abandon it. Roberts, is no conservative, he simply plays at being one. He's a swish judge from the Frankfurter school, who decries judicial activism, preferring to let legislatures decide our rights.

I give you both Obamacare1 and Obamacare2 as evidence that he'd rather turn backflips, judicially, than stand on conservative principal. And I give you Obergefell as evidence of his lack of leadership. More critically, he allows conservatives to be jailed for their beliefs (can you say Kim Davis?), but allows other elected officials to deny basic rights in liberal bastions (how many people have been jailed in Chicago for failing to approve concealed carry permits?). I submit that if the Supremes had been as enthusiastic about Heller and McDonald as they were about Obergefell, anyone could walk into any city hall in America and get a concealed carry permit in a matter of minutes. That didn't happen under Roberts. Some places are still arguing about gun rights, but no one anywhere is arguing about gay rights.

I fart in the general direction of the Roberts court.
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Mike OTDP
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Re: Biden Bows Out: $#!^ getting real for Election 2016

Post by Mike OTDP »

Here's how I'm seeing it:

On the Dem side, the Clinton/Sanders fight is not over yet. I think Biden may well be playing coy here...waiting for the Democrat establishment to beg him to jump back in. Clinton is disliked by a lot of Democrats, and the national security establishment is furious with her security lapses.

On the GOP side, it's all about the preference cascade. No matter who wins the nomination, at least 70% of the primary voters are not going to get their favorite on top of the ballot. This will be decided by people's second, third, and even fourth choices. It's hard to predict. Trump has one big advantage - he's already got a media persona. It's going to be far harder for the Propaganda Press to smear him without a blank canvas to work on.

My assessment? At this time, there's Trump, Carson, Cruz, Rubio, Bush, and maybe Fiorina. The rest should pack it in now, they are going nowhere. What is interesting is that the rest of the pack accounts for ~20% of the vote...which is enough to shift things dramatically.

The polls right now are 4-5% margin of error...in other words, as unreliable as Obama's word. Useful only as a general measure of strength. After Iowa and New Hampshire, we'll have a better idea of where the candidates really stand. And then the preference cascade begins as candidates drop by the wayside.

And I can't forecast that well. I do think Bush will be out fairly early...he's despised by the GOP base, and the Plutocrat wing of the party as Rubio as a more palatable substitute.

Trump? He's realized that he has a real shot at the White House this time, and is tightening up his operation. His strengths are the media persona, the immigration issue, and an absolute refusal to bootlick the Propaganda Press. His weakness is the lack of experience in elective office, and the business failures. He's very vulnerable to a populist attack - which Clinton can't deliver, but
Sanders could.

Carson? He's Trump...without Trump's strengths or weaknesses. I honestly think that when it's crunch time, Carson gets crunched.

Rubio? Immigration is his great vulnerability. And Trump knows it.

Cruz? He's the interesting one...if he keeps his head above water long enough, I can see him being nobody's first choice, or second, or even third....but everybody's Acceptable Choice.

But my Magic 8-Ball is really, really cloudy.
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JustinR
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Re: Biden Bows Out: $#!^ getting real for Election 2016

Post by JustinR »

Biden's speech, as much as I could stomach, sounded like someone running for president, except not. I suspect that if Hillary implodes, Biden will "reluctantly" agree to be drafted to run "for the good of the country." But that's just speculation.
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Mike OTDP
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Re: Biden Bows Out: $#!^ getting real for Election 2016

Post by Mike OTDP »

JustinR wrote:Biden's speech, as much as I could stomach, sounded like someone running for president, except not. I suspect that if Hillary implodes, Biden will "reluctantly" agree to be drafted to run "for the good of the country." But that's just speculation.
It would not surprise me one bit. She takes the early hits...then the arrest warrant drops, and the Democrat powers-that-be "draft" Biden. Who comes in fresh-as-a-daisy.

Or so he thinks. Eight years of Obama's lawless misrule are a pretty heavy millstone to carry.
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